On the Bubble - intereting puzzle

[Scuba Chuck]

I am making this up, but similar situations occur all the time.

Blinds (200/400)
BB 3,000
HERO 3,000
UTG 1,800
BUTTON 200

HERO is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Fold to Hero in the SB. What is the advice here?
Can you raise? Is this a mandatory push?

[1C5]

Good question. You push, he folds, you steal his BB. You push, he calls, you will be behind in the hand 95% of the time. Raising might be an option instead? I got yelled at here for doing that before though. It was the same scenerio as this almost and I raised to 900 instead of pushing and he came over the top and reraised all in. I folded but not sure if that was the correct play...

[Scuba Chuck]

It's nice when the first responder gets the question.

I was thinking about this. Put yourself in the BBs shoes. I think it's +$EV to push with any two cards in this scenario.

Is my thinking correct?

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice when the first responder gets the question.

I was thinking about this. Put yourself in the BBs shoes. I think it's +$EV to push with any two cards in this scenario.

Is my thinking correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't I read a quote here a few days ago that claimed that it's +EV to push from the small blind with any two cards if you have <10 bb left? The caveat was that while this is true over the whole range of hands, it may not be true for each individual hand.

I'd say it's probably +EV to push here from a strictly chip-by-chip perspective, but that doesn't take into account he fact that you're co-chip leader on the bubble, going up against the other chip leader, and a player is due to be knocked out next hand. I'd fold this hand every day and twice on Sunday, +EV be damned.

I also doubt raising then folding a push beats just folding for EV, but that's hard to compute without a read on BB.

The same thing goes for the BB. It may be slightly +EV to push against a standard raise, but so what?

Even if these moves are +EV in terms of winnings, I'd probably choose to fold, just to keep my variance down. The long term tiny edge won't begin to pay for the monitor I throw through my window when I bust out here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's +$EV to push with any two cards in this scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm semi-new here... does +$EV mean plus cash EV (as in EV of prize money), as opposed to plus tourney chips EV?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I am making this up, but similar situations occur all the time.

Blinds (200/400)
BB 3,000
HERO 3,000
UTG 1,800
BUTTON 200

HERO is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Fold to Hero in the SB. What is the advice here?
Can you raise? Is this a mandatory push?

[/ QUOTE ]

if the BB seems reasonable, push with ATC...if he's wild, or even if you have some doubt...fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

This is a results oriented question.

I ask because I got called in a similar scenario, and lost, OUT OF THE MONEY.

So, given the results, I am asking the question, really, is it better to fold this? Or, maybe, I am asking, Am I a pussy?

It seems like good poker to me, if I were the BB in this situation, and I was dealt AK, I would probably fold it. Any thoughts?

[Gramps]

If you push this hand, and push the next hand (button will be UTG and is unlikely to play unless he has a strong hand), then the stacks become (assuming the button folds his UTG hand)

Hero - 4000
BB - 2400
UTG - 1400
Button - 200

If you fold, it's going to be tough to push through the BB big stack unless you have a strong hand. If he has any sense, he'll push from the SB (and UTG now BB won't call without a monster). Thus, the likely chip count after the next hand becomes:

BB - 3600
Hero - 2800
UTG - 1400
Button - 200

That's pretty tempting to push, seeing that the % of the time you'll get called and lose appears very small (probably only get called with a premium-type hand, what % of the time BB will have it, what % of the time will you not suck out when called by the given range of hands). The vast majority of the time pushing gives you a signficant chip impmrovement and jacks up your odss of getting 2nd and 1st. If BB is loose/will call you out of spite, then maybe be cautious, but otherwise pushing looks like a strong play.

Occassionally the Button will play his UTG hand and that kind of screws things up a little, but also sometimes the button will survive his blinds and go into "survive at all costs" mode, allowing you to steal at will and get a huge chip advantage on everyone else.

If you raise to say 900, you're giving the BB the opportunity to steal 1300 chips without a showdown by coming over the top all-in (and some players make this play with any two cards given the situation). Not a good play IMO unless the BB is a known weak-tightie (won't call/play back at you without a strong hand).

When in doubt in spots like this, my rule of thumb is to err on the side of being aggressive on the bubble. You can certainly be too aggressive, but on close decisions, no shame in playing it strong.

[eastbay]

It really depends on your opponent.

One of the frustrating things about SnGs is that your opponents can make horrid mistakes which also hurt YOU.

By pushing here you are giving him the opportunity to be very stupid by calling with a lot of hands that he should fold, and you don't want that. So if you think he may be stupid, or prideful, or pissed off at you, you should be far more inclined to fold.

eastbay

[Scuba Chuck]

Thanks Gramps. Those are my thoughts exactly. I know I shouldn't have even posted. I am just more surprised by the AK call by BB.