River play (crossposted)

[Entity]

Crossposted with a micro thread. Don't read there before reading here if you can help it -- the threads are different. Please vote before responding (so as to not read before voting), but respond with your reasoning.

UTG+1 is an ok, straightforward, not tricky player. He doesn't raise garbage-ish hands preflop. He's fairly passive postflop.

Party Poker 15-30 (8-handed)
converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.83 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero...

[Paxosmotic]

I think we've got a small bit of fold equity against all pocket pairs and AK, and can expect to get called quite a few times with AQ or AJ, so this is a bet.

[lil']

You can bet for value here.

(I disagree that a better hand is folding here, though. You might get another A-K to fold, but a better hand didn't come this far to fold the river for one bet.)

I think that we can reduce the likelihood that a bunch of pair hands are around here. AA, KK, and to a lesser degree QQ would have made a bit more noise here. TT seems outs. 99 and 88 might not have raised in the first place here.

By reducing the percentage of villain's range taken up by pairs in such a fashion, we realize that AK is going to take up a huge percentage of villain's range.

The value of folding another AK here makes the river bet valuable in my opinion, particularly against a passive opponent who would not call it down.

[cold_cash]

Bet so that you might avoid the chop.

Also, I don't know about you but I think many players will call the flop and turn hoping you're betting overcards, but when you bet the river they think, "Well, he probably wouldn't bet all 3 streets w/ overcards, so he must really have it."

Now, I have my doubts that you can get this guy to lay down a hand like 99 (unlikely), or JJ (never), but when you add in the possiblity that he folds another AK or calls w/ AQ I think it's a bet.

[Argus]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I think we've got a small bit of fold equity against all pocket pairs and AK, and can expect to get called quite a few times with AQ or AJ, so this is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
How can you hope that the better hands in villain's range will fold but the worse hands will call? I disagree with those that voted to bet. You have a hand with some showdown value, but not enough that you are a favourite when called. Most good players would dump AQ or AJ on the turn, knowing they are dogs to your 3-betting range in this mid-sized pot. I expect villain to showdown a pocket pair smaller than queens and call your river bet every time.

[meep_42]

Check.

PPs aren't folding here, ever. The only hand that folds that you want to fold is another AK. You get a call from AQ and maybe AJ.

Based on the overcard possibilities alone, it's a very close bet, but when you figure PPs that call I don't think this is a good value bet.

-d

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we've got a small bit of fold equity against all pocket pairs and AK, and can expect to get called quite a few times with AQ or AJ, so this is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
How can you hope that the better hands in villain's range will fold but the worse hands will call? I disagree with those that voted to bet. You have a hand with some showdown value, but not enough that you are a favourite when called. Most good players would dump AQ or AJ on the turn, knowing they are dogs to your 3-betting range in this mid-sized pot. I expect villain to showdown a pocket pair smaller than queens and call your river bet every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that folding a better hand is a very slim possibility, but I think you underestimate both how often this guy will have and fold AK, and how often he'll have and call w/ AQ. (Though I think the chances of the former are greater than the chances of the latter.)

[baronzeus]

After calling the turn, AK isnt folding, especially if he is passive postflop. Neither is any pocket pair.

Your best bet is getting value from AQ-AJ. AQ-AJ isn't folding after calling the turn either. It's certainly not an easy bet though, since you may have beaten his pocket pair into submission with your preflop 3bet, especially when you add in the fact that he is passive.

[bugstud]

at higher limits you can valuebet this because a pair would have given more action

I think I still bet here and expect to see AQ