Houston Rockets are going to the finals, you can put money on it. - Page 2

Brad F. · #1 11-01-2005, 12:13 PM

A pretty silly thread here if you ask me. Two Houston homers trying to talk biased smack about their team.

Let's look at thw Western Conference from an analytical standpoint. I love the Western Conference in the NBA, growing up in Denver I am a big Nuggets fan and the rest of the conference has always played good basketball, with the Nugs just coming into the mix. My dad was a very big Blazer fan up until the mid nineties, so I grew up watching western conference teams all the time. I've read SI predictions, ESPN predictions, and I feel like this is going to be the tightest conference in the common era of the NBA.

Here's a quick look at the top 8 or so WC teams:

1) Spurs. I really don't need to go into depth here do I? They added talent, and they were the best team in basketball last year.
2) Nuggets. Now before you flame me for being a homer, I don't think the Nugs are the 2nd best team in the WC, they will just be seeded here because 1, they won't have much quality competition in the Northwest, and 2, the Pacific is weak and Sacramento/Pheonix/Lakers all will not match the Nuggets record. The Nuggets had the best record in basketball the second half, got Voshon Lenard back and picked up a gret defensive PG in Earl Watson. They should grab the 2nd seed.
3) Sacramento. Probably the 5th best tewm in the West, maybe the 6th, but their division is weak. The Suns lost Joe Johnson and Amare and they can still beat an improved Sacramento team for the division? I don't think so. The addition of Kenny Thomas along with Brad Miller, Bibby and Stojakovic equals a good team.
4) Dallas Mavericks. They are a more well-rounded team than the Rockets. They have a deeper bench, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels are improving, Jason Terry is going to have a better season, and Dirk is better than Yao overall. You can make an argument that the Rockets go here, but I think the Rockets are slightly below.
5) Houston Rockets. The team did start to mesh last year, but they still have holes. Juwan Howard/Stromile Swift isn't sn entirely impressive PF tandem. SG is also an issue with David Wesely/Derek Anderson sharing time. Sura is a workhorse, and proved his worth down the stretch last season. Maybe the 3rd best team behind the Spurs/Mavs, but maybe the 4th.
6) Seattle Sonics. Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen, Radmanovic, Luke Collison, Ridnour. Good players, can they create the same output they had at the beginning of last year?
7) Pheonix Suns. Steve Nash leads a torn apart Suns team. We will have to see how Raja and Thomas do with bigger roles. Jim Jackson is solid, but I don't see this team doing much in the regular season. We'll need to watch out come playoff time though.
8) Minnesota/LA Lakers/LA Clippers/Utah/Golden State. Who knows, all these teams could creep up even into a 7 spot.

These are my thoughts. Just wanted to put some actual analysis in there for the Houston lovers.

Brad

DCJ311 · #2 11-01-2005, 01:19 PM

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Holy crap! 7 point favorites??? In November??? What the hell was I thinking??? Tell me Houston is at home, too! Wait ... what's that ... it's also the second of a back-to-back for Sacramento? Wow!

PS how could the Steelers only win by 1 last night? The books had them as 13 point favorites!

Fool.

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The main difference between me and you is that you're a pompous douche who knows nothing about sports and I make a living betting on it. If the Kings are slightly better than the Rockets as you say, the line should be Rockets -1. I'll wager any amount up to $5k on the Rockets at that line if you're willing to book it. Thoughts?

Brad F. · #3 11-01-2005, 01:29 PM

You obviously know nothing about lines, especially opening night NBA lines.

Even if the Kings were 'slightly' better, the line would still be -5 or 6 Rockets. The Rockets would be at -3 over the Spurs if they met in game one.

Brad

#4 11-01-2005, 03:07 PM

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Holy crap! 7 point favorites??? In November??? What the hell was I thinking??? Tell me Houston is at home, too! Wait ... what's that ... it's also the second of a back-to-back for Sacramento? Wow!

PS how could the Steelers only win by 1 last night? The books had them as 13 point favorites!

Fool.

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The main difference between me and you is that you're a pompous douche who knows nothing about sports and I make a living betting on it. If the Kings are slightly better than the Rockets as you say, the line should be Rockets -1. I'll wager any amount up to $5k on the Rockets at that line if you're willing to book it. Thoughts?

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My thoughts are that, based on your highly intelligent posts, the chances are good that (1) I will never see the $5000, (2) the money will be counterfeit, or (3) you would pay me over many years, in rolls of nickels. So, I will respectfully decline your most generous offer, although I am sure my decision not to take a bet from some anonymous teenager whose posts demonstrate that he would have difficulty even counting to 5,000 will be met with the response that I am a "pussy". Such are the trials and tribulations of being a pompous douche.

#5 10-31-2005, 11:07 PM

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Best starting 5 in the NBA, and Swift...coming off the bench.

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Therefore you are including Juwon Howard as one of the 5 cogs in the NBA's best starting 5. O-K.

Clarkmeister · #6 11-01-2005, 01:21 AM

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Best starting 5 in the NBA, and Swift, Sura and Mutombo are coming on the bench. Tell me I'm wrong.

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I'd put them at 60% to make the playoffs. Maybe 15% to get out of the first round, 3% to make the conference finals. Less than 1% to win it all.

Josh W · #7 11-01-2005, 02:50 AM

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Best starting 5 in the NBA, and Swift, Sura and Mutombo are coming on the bench. Tell me I'm wrong.

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I'd put them at 60% to make the playoffs. Maybe 15% to get out of the first round, 3% to make the conference finals. Less than 1% to win it all.

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Past disagreements aside, I usually have similar thoughts to you Clark. But 15% to make it out of the first round of the playoffs? That seems steep to me.

Obviously the #1 seed is set. But outside of that, there's enough parity that I don't think any of the 2-7, 3-6, or 4-5 matchups will haev a 3:1 favorite, which they'd need to be if Houston is 60% to make the playoffs.

Don't know if this rambling makes sense....but even with TMac's well publicized struggles to get out of the first round, I still think they have a 30% chance to get to the 2nd round, especially considering the way TMac played vs. Dallas in the playoffs last year.

My two cents....

DCJ311 · #8 11-01-2005, 08:40 AM

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I'd put them at 60% to make the playoffs. Maybe 15% to get out of the first round, 3% to make the conference finals. Less than 1% to win it all.

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Change that number to about 60% to make it out of the first round and you all might start to sound like you know what you're talking about.

Right now the Rockets are priced on most sportsbooks as the 2nd or 3rd best team in the WC. If that happens, they will open their first round matchup at anywhere from -150 to -300 to win their first round, depending what seeding they get. I've never seen worse opinions in a sports betting forum in my life.