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  #1  
Old 12-20-2005, 05:06 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Posts: 113
Default math quiz

MLG wrote this in his "evolving" post.

[ QUOTE ]
Step 4: Poker Players
If you make it here, the math has become 2nd nature (even the most complicated of it).

[/ QUOTE ]

so i put together a little math quiz. it's only 3 questions, and if people are interested i'll do more. here are the rules:

- read the question, then start the clock. within 45 seconds, write down your answer. after that, you can write some explanation if you want, but you can't change the answer.

- assume we're early in the tournament and decisions will not cripple hero (so chipEV is around $EV), and villain just moved to table.

- use only what you normally use during poker. if that includes pokerstove / calculator / etc, then that's ok.

question 1

hero has 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. pot is 2k. villain has 4k, hero covers easily.

board is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

villain bets 2k. hero can only push or fold. what percentage of the time must villain fold to make pushing better than folding? villain only calls with 9x or better.

question 2

blinds are 150/300. it's folded to the SB (2k, hero covers) who pushes. what is hero's calling range if SB's pushing range is

a) KJ+ A8+ 66+
b) JT+ Q9+ K7+ A4+ 22+ (take 45 sec's each)

question 3

you hold K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. villain has 4k, you cover. pot is 3k. villain pushes. the board is:

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

a) villain has 1 pair. 67% of the time he has Kx, and 33% he has 7x. should you call?

b) what % of the time must villain have 7x to make the call barely profitable for hero?
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  #2  
Old 12-20-2005, 05:45 PM
KingDan KingDan is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 139
Default Re: math quiz

1) EDIT: [censored] me misread action
2) 99+ AJ+ .
2b)KJ+, 77+, A5s+, a7o?
3) Muck.
b) ran out of time but for solid guess but i imagine around 40%
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  #3  
Old 12-20-2005, 06:02 PM
Pat Southern Pat Southern is offline
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Posts: 30
Default Re: math quiz

Question 1: EV(pushing)= EV(win/opp call)+ EV(lose/opp call)+ EV(win/opp fold)

EV= .18(1-x)6k-.82(1-x)4k+xx*4k

x=30.5%

2. I'm home for the holidays so no pokerstove, if I had to guess:
a) AT+, 88+, maybe KQ
b) KJ+, A6+, 22+

3. Pot Odds: 7/4= 1.75
So we have to be good 1 out of 2.75 times to make calling correct. We have to be good 36.36% of the time to make calling correct. We are 10%(2/3) +81%(1/3)= 33% so calling is incorrect. To find out how often he needs to have 7x substitute x for 1/3 and 1-x for 2/3 and set equation equal to 36.36 and solve for x, I'm too lazy to do that right now, probably is going to be about 2/5 7x to make calling right.
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  #4  
Old 12-20-2005, 06:03 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: math quiz

#1
60%, thought went like this
hit my straight about 16% of the time, so if he calls, I win
10K x 16% = 1,600

I'm missing 2,400 in equity, 4,000 in the pot, if he folds 60%, I should be even

2.) Dont use pokerstove when I play, so this is off the top of my head. I know I need about 40% equity, which will be hands like 2OCs vs a PP, SC vs. AXo (we are higher than X), KJo vs lower SC.
22+ (b/c the unpaired hands are way more likelY
suited connectors T9s+
KQo
A7+

b) SC (76s+)
AX
K5+
22+

3.) 11K total, pot, I need to get 4 (in expectation) to make the call. About 36% of the time. If he has a King 33% of the time, I have 3 outs twice (unless he has 2p, or turns 2p, or resucks 2p), but he has more than that when he has 7X, so we may need a higher % than 33%. I say around 40%, to account for the fact that when he is behind, he is drawing liver than us.

I like this idea a lot. I need practice making decisions quickly
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  #5  
Old 12-20-2005, 06:08 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Posts: 44
Default Re: math quiz

Screwed up #1

I included my 4K in the 1st part, but not the 2nd. So, cut the 60% in half, around 30%.

But, at least I didnt cheat
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  #6  
Old 12-20-2005, 06:54 PM
Sam T. Sam T. is offline
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Location: St Louis, MO
Posts: 160
Default Re: math quiz

Great googley moogely, I have no idea. I feel like Number Two.

Does this mean I need to get pokerstove?
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  #7  
Old 12-20-2005, 07:07 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: New Jersey
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Default Re: math quiz

Awesome idea, here goes nothing.

1. er. 50%+. 8 outs, so like 15% equity,
2. a) KQs, AT+, 77+
b) KJs+,KQo+, A6s+, A8o+, 55+
3. a) less than 2:1 odds, so 67% shouldn't be good enough. so.. no.
b) between 63 and 64% (i'm an idiot, thats the % he has a K. So... between 36 and 37%)



well that was humbling. great idea.
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  #8  
Old 12-20-2005, 07:07 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 469
Default Re: math quiz

1. Villain folds hero wins 4K.
Villain calls hero hits str8 15% of the time and wins 10K and 85% of the time loses 4K. Net -2K.
villain folds 33% of the time to break even.

2a. Who knows. hero calls 6XBB to win 7XBB and has to be 46.5% in the hand. roughly a big hand like KQ. (tight range)
2b. Not so tight a range ~QT
3a. Hero calls 4K to win 7K and must be 36% in the hand or have an avg of 17 outs against entire range.
2/3 of the time we have 3 outs and 1/3 of the time we have 43 outs, don't call. ~15 outs. Don't call but its close.
3b. Hero needs 17 outs. 1 out ~2% (1/50) so add 4%. Villain must have middle pair 37% of the time and top pair 63%.

this is of course way too complicated for at the table calculations, you would have to have a great read on villain to even consider him having top pair more frequently than middle pair when you hold a king.

the table dynamics counts for much more than than a few percent, so I wouldn't waste my time on these details. It's close enough to be a call in the first case inspite of the unlikely circumstances.
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  #9  
Old 12-20-2005, 07:24 PM
gobboboy gobboboy is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 297
Default Re: math quiz

I don't think this quiz is very indicative of what you use for poker. No one will ever calculate this much at the poker table and if they are, I don't suspect they are close to expert players. Despite what we say, math is not nearly as important as experience and good instincts in NL tournament play. There are too many factors which we can't account for, which is one reason why there aren't any computers which can play NL Holdem efficiently.

I looked at the questions and thought about my answers, but there were too many variables which you can't account for in numbers. Especially since most of us never think about the answers to questions like this in the heat of the moment (prove me wrong, please, but I've NEVER run the numbers in depth during a decision).

Don't take this the wrong way, but this thread is just going to be us patting ourselves on the back but at the table you'll get a completely different answer from 95% of us.
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  #10  
Old 12-20-2005, 07:36 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 3
Default Re: math quiz

Er. I think i completely disagree with you. This isn't serious math, and i doubt these problems were meant for you to get a pen and paper and figure them out... you have to practice doing the math so you know it quickly when you ahve to apply it at the tables.

You're right that when you're at the table you're not going to break down his hand range, and solve for how often he has to fold for you to breakeven. But how else are you supposed to practice? If you can solve these problems quickly, then you'll sure as hell be able to have a 'feel' at the table for what you should be doing.

And, if you suck at doing these problems, then you're going to suck going with your gut at the heat of the moment.
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