99 on scary board

TStoneMBD · #1 04-06-2005, 04:47 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

no stats, playerview is broken yet again. this blows. i would donate $500 to playerview's owner if he would just get me a working copy this month. jesus.

QTip · #2 04-06-2005, 04:49 PM

Is there no read on villian?

Chris Dow · #3 04-06-2005, 04:50 PM

This is a clear check behind. I don't mind raising the flop. I don't mind betting the ace. I would consider it very poor to bet the river here. If the sb actually hit the king, he now has 3 of them. Also if the sb was screwing around on the flop he could easily have hit that ace and just been passive with it so far. I can see him certainly check/calling with the ace on the river. I can't see anything you can bluff or much you can value bet at this point (and I seriously try to value bet everything).

prayformojo · #4 04-06-2005, 04:55 PM

I check behind. The only better hands I see villain folding are the very unlikely TT through QQ. I don't see any hands that you beat calling.

DMBFan23 · #5 04-06-2005, 04:55 PM

is SB solid? if so, he'd probably reraise with any A or K hand he's willing to defend with, and may be calling down with a pocket pair here. as it is, I probably just check behind versus an unknown here.

EDIT: he'd probably 3 bet with a lot of pocket pairs he's gonna play anyways, I'm just trying to come up with SOMETHING that you beat that's worth betting against. there aint much though.

BigEndian · #6 04-06-2005, 04:57 PM

If you can fold to a raise I think you should bet this river. If you can't, then check behind.

- Jim

Chris Dow · #7 04-06-2005, 05:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you can fold to a raise I think you should bet this river. If you can't, then check behind.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure I'm not seeing this the same way. What is he calling with that you're beating, compared with what he will call with that's beating you, and, if there is anything, you can throw in what he's folding that is beating you.

BigEndian · #8 04-06-2005, 05:08 PM

I think he would raise the turn with an Ace and he will raise the river with a K. So if he doesn't raise your bet on the river, I think you will have him beat 98% of the time if he calls.

The only real question is how often does he call with a hand you beat to offset the money you put in if you are raised on the end, not if he calls do you win. I think it's often enough to bet. Do you disagree?

- Jim

sthief09 · #9 04-06-2005, 05:14 PM

I would have been planning to check behind, but with the second K coming and him not betting at it, I'd bet. he'll pay you off with a 6 or 2

flair1239 · #10 04-06-2005, 05:16 PM

I hate to take the easy way out but he is playing it alot like a flush draw. I suppose he might have a Kx type hand as well. I can't see a logical hand with a 2 or a 6 in it (unless it is A6, A2, K6, K2, 66, or 22). HE also possbily picked up a gutshot on the turn and decided to stick around. But if we are beat it is most likely by a K with a weak kicker.

So the question is this. Is there value to betting? If he was on a flush draw he will probably fold. If he was just sticking around with a gutshot he will probably fold. I would say logically there are not a lot of hands that you beat that he will pay off with.

This is a weak point for me but I am checking. Unless he has a smaller PP I can't see him paying off.