Why Am I So Results Driven?

[Jazza]

changed over from UB to Party about 5 days ago

i started off on track winning about 10BB/100hands (no limit) but then took a downswing and barely stayed above breakeven for about 5K hands, i was pretty sure it was bad luck

during this time i began to question my abilities and begin to think that maybe my style is no good at Party and I really am just a break even player

now just recently i hit an upswing and my results are coming much closer to what i expected (about 9BB/100hands) and now feel overconfident, like it's only a matter of time before i'm playing about 4 limits higher than my current limit

so here's the thing, i know the math, i understand the variance (for me about 4BB/100hands after 7K hands) but my confidence in my own abilities still waxes and wanes over near meaningless numbers

and since having confidence is needed to play well, this effect can amplify my swings, increasing my variance

do any of you guys have similar problems? any tips to help steady myself?

[TStoneMBD]

its human nature to be short term oriented. its very hard to overcome this natural demeanor. its definitely one of my biggest, if not biggest weaknesses in poker right now. when hitting down streaks or plateaus i dont want to play. i know that it will eventually end, probably shortly, but i go crazy. its really tough.

[AKQJ10]

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its human nature to be short term oriented.

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Precisely. Ed Miller has a really great discussion of this point early on in SSHE.

[Wes ManTooth]

Being simply aware of your abilities, strengths and weaknesses, when moving up in levels is very key. Confidence, like you mentioned, can be negatively affected with swings regardless of numbers. The main thing is to be always aware of this and not let it affect your game when swings happen. This is easy when you become comfortable playing at in your certain levels over time, but this is because increasing becomes difficult when moving up. Many outside factors more often then none effect variance, controlling the spread of the variance is difficult, focusing more on the long-term results is more important.

[Aytumious]

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i know the math, i understand the variance (for me about 4BB/100hands after 7K hands)

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Just so you know, your variance is probably more like 40bb/100 using the PT BB definition.

[Jazza]

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i know the math, i understand the variance (for me about 4BB/100hands after 7K hands)

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Just so you know, your variance is probably more like 40bb/100 using the PT BB definition.

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i agree, but what i meant was my winrate over 7K hands has a SD of about 4bb/100 hands

[Aytumious]

Ah, okay, I may have misinterpreted your post.

[SpeakEasy]

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any tips to help steady myself?

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A big fat bankroll. Then the swings don't matter -- you're just playing solid poker, and reaping the long-term benefits.

[Grisgra]

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do any of you guys have similar problems? any tips to help steady myself?

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Hi. I'm Grisgra, and I'm also an idiot. . . .

Yeah, I go through the same f'ing thing as well. Had a 25k run at over 3BB/100 (limit), was overconfident, now after one single solitary little 75BB slide over 1k hands, am feeling like I'm King of the Donks, and really have no business playing this game if I'm going to play it so badly.

It's definitely true that having a big bankroll helps smooth things out, and these slides bug me less than they used to, but shees . . . can't pretend I'm not obsessing about it, as I stopped by this forum today and am responding to your post!

[Bodhi]

I will answer your original question and not the ramblings in your post.

You are results oriented because the natural world selects for results-oriented creatures. As a results-oriented creature, you are playing a game that selects against results-orientation, hence your frustration.

The only way to overcome this is to have a sound theoretical understanding of the game. Only then can your results not affect your thinking.