U-G-L-Y UGLY!!!!!

[ddss6_99]

Before you look at this hand, be aware that the Flop play is veryyy ugly. I would like some input there (be gentle), but my main question is if I can call the turn bet.
***** Hand History for Game 1565973591 *****
NL Hold'em $24 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:9417040 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Wednesday, February 09, 18:35:59 EDT 2005
Table Quarter Million Qualifier #248819 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: redhead0806 ( $985 )
Seat 5: bsnyd ( $1062 )
Seat 6: slyco ( $1960 )
Seat 8: norrisbruce ( $1070 )
Seat 9: garcr080 ( $728 )
Seat 3: TheRapper ( $1455 )
Seat 4: herricksteph ( $740 )
Trny:9417040 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to norrisbruce [ A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
herricksteph folds.
bsnyd calls [30].
slyco folds.
norrisbruce raises [75].
<font color="blue"> Kind of an akward raise, but I thought it wasn't too bad. </font>
garcr080 folds.
redhead0806 calls [60].
TheRapper folds.
bsnyd calls [45].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
redhead0806 bets [30].
bsnyd calls [30].
norrisbruce calls [30].
<font color="blue"> Now this is where I screwed up. I flop top 2 and face a weak bet. It could mean a couple things. A made flush wanting action, a flush draw w/ maybe a pair, or just a pair. When I was faced with this bet, my thoughts were that if I just call the flop bet, I can raise a safe turn card. Looking back however, I should have probably raised here to get a feel for where I stand in the hand. Thoughts? </font>
** Dealing Turn ** [ T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
redhead0806 bets [150].
<font color="blue"> Probably the worst card I could have seen as I put a 4 flush and 3 straight on the board. At this point I was pretty sure that I'd need to hit my 4 outer to win the hand. I'm not very good at the math aspect, so what would I do to determine if the call is +EV or not? Would you have folded this turn??</font>
bsnyd folds.
norrisbruce...

[KingDan]

Referring to the turn bet. If you are sure he has the flush, you are facing a $150 chip bet on a bet you need 12:1 You do not have the odds to call. Even if when you hit he'll call an all-in, you still need to win $1300. I think it's safe to assume that he won't call the all-in every time you hit, making the correct play to fold. This is assuming he has the 4th heart. This makes things tricky, because he might not have it but still bet strong into on the river thinking you feel weak. I'd fold.

[Voltron87]

Raise the flop. After that the hand plays itself.

[rustyboy]

Agreed. The fact that if you hit your boat, he may lay down the flush kills your implied odds. This makes this call a bad move. Assuming he has the flush.

[11t]

Raise more on the flop with the one limper or do not raise at all. When people raise like you just I laugh at my monitor.

You should raise for a few reasons, to define your hand, to limit the field, to get money into the pot, and to protect your hand. All you did was get money into the pot with a weak hand. Raise more preflop to define your hand and limit the field or do not raise at all.

I'd raise put in a pot size reraise on the flop.

[drexah]

raise big on flop or push.

[ilya]

I disagree, I think calling on the flop is the right play. You don't have all that many chips invested in this pot yet and you can definitely afford to fold on the turn if another heart comes. I think waiting until the turn allows you to get out cheaper if you have to, protect your hand against a flush draw + pair combo that could call all-in correctly on the flop, and get more information with your raise.
Also...if your opponent calls your flop raise without a heart, and another heart comes on the turn, he might sense your weakness and bluff you out on the river. If, however, he calls you without a heart on the turn, and the fourth heart comes on the river, he'll be less likely to bluff you because you won't have shown weakness at that point.

If you hadn't made the pot bigger by raising preflop, raising on the flop would be a better option. That's not to say that I mind raising preflop, but if you're gonna do it, raise enough to narrow the field. As it is, you're asking for a big, multiway pot -- not what you want with this hand.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not very good at the math aspect, so what would I do to determine if the call is +EV or not? Would you have folded this turn??

[/ QUOTE ]

you can call 150 to win a pot that is 640 + whatever you think redhead will call on the river.

redhead has 730 left. assuming you have 4 outs, and that redhead has the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and will call a river allin:

you get 150/(640+730)=.109... that is- you need a 10.9% chance of winning to clear your implied odds. 4 outs out of 46 unknown cards (we are assuming he has 1 heart)=4/46= 8.6%. thus you don't have odds and should fold.

a couple notes about this: 1. redhead will not always call an allin- especially if he does not have the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. what this means is that your implied odds are not as good as we assumed.

2. since redhead might not have the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and therefore will sometimes fold, you could concievably successfully bluff either the turn or river and be successful sometimes. I'm not recommending this at all. My guess is that pushing either the turn or river is definitely -EV. but it's something to keep in mind. the worse your implied odds are, the better your bluffing odds are my guess is that in this situation, your implied odds for calling are better than your bluffing odds.

3. you are sometimes winning, and the villain will sometimes check the river. i have no idea how often. you have to have a read on the player to have any idea.

so, there are 3 scenarios- 1. the villain is winning and will call an allin. 2. the villain is winning and will fold to an allin. 3. you are winning and the villain will fold to an allin.

in situation 1: folding is best, calling is only slightly worse, and pushing is terrible
in situation 2: pushing is best, folding is OK, and calling is bad.
in situation 3: calling is best. pushing is only slightly worse, and folding is very bad.

which situation do you think you are in most often?

keep in mind, that even if the answer was situation 2, it would need to be by a wide margin to make pushing right, as you lose your whole stack 92% the time you push in situation 1.

having no read, I would probably call, and fold to a significant river bet. i think that folding is only slightly worse.

[mlee]

I have seen this a few times. You flop two pair but three to a flush. What is the probablity that one opponent has a flush? What is the probability that he has a flush if the turn is also of the same suit. I've always wondered about this.