Making him fold a better hand

[kapw7]

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3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards.

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Is my hand really strong based on the action so far? And how will 3-betting protect my hand from overcards? 3-betting would only serve two purposes here:
1) extract bets when we're ahead, which is very nice, but are we ahead often enough?
2) gain information so that we can fold our hand

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However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

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What about a check-raise? That way we'll get to see what the MP decides to do, and it would put even bigger pressure on UTG since we've played our hand just like an AK?

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3-bet is not for protection. I understand your concern b/c of UTG's PF stats. If you do the maths there are 18 ways for AA/KK/QQ and 16 ways for AK. Even if we are marginally behind, the hand is 3-way so we have enough equity to raise.

The ace is one of the worse cards on the turn but the pot is big enough to try a desperate move.

[Saborion]

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3-bet is not for protection. I understand your concern b/c of UTG's PF stats. If you do the maths there are 18 ways for AA/KK/QQ and 16 ways for AK. Even if we are marginally behind, the hand is 3-way so we have enough equity to raise.


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Huh? First of all, if UTGs holdings are limited to AA-QQ and AK (as per your example) we MAY have an equity edge as far as fair share goes, all depending on what the MP is holding. But, not only could we possibly have less than fair share (again, depending on what MP has), the times UTG holds AA-QQ (which he has more 50 % of the times based on card distribution, NOT including the fact that he will not always raise AK on that flop) it will often be capped, meaning our equity edge regardless of what MP holds, is way lower than fair share, making the 3-bet a very bad move.

No, I think bet/3-bet is the second worst line, next to bet-call.

[kapw7]

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NOT including the fact that he will not always raise AK on that flop


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This is the only way to play AK. AA/KK he might a lot of times smooth call to let MP in and raise the turn.

Card ditribution makes us a 16:18 underdog which is pretty close to 50% if you imagine that sometimes AQs might cap. Even 16/18 is fine 3-handed especially since MP is so loose that could call with plenty of hands here.

I don't mind the check-raise as well. But why would you C-R if you think you are behind? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] (I'll read your posts now to find the answer)

[Saborion]

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I don't mind the check-raise as well. But why would you C-R if you think you are behind? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] (I'll read your posts now to find the answer)

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I don't think a check-raise is the way to go. I think it's a cheaper way than bet/3-bet to find out whether we are ahead or not. After talking to some people about the hand I think a check-call on the flop is the best line to take.

[Wynton]

I cannot fathom a reason for check/calling this flop, when you have an overpair and there is a significant chance that your hand is best. You get zero information, miss bets and provide infinite odds for anyone drawing.

[StellarWind]

You're in a lot of trouble here.

1. You cannot get KK/QQ out because he can put you on something like JJ/99/77 for your preflop 3-bet. You are behind absolutely everything he "should" have except case JJ. You are also behind a ton of other stuff that he "could" have like lower aces, any ten, and snowmen. 23/11 players don't speculate a lot preflop. To respond to another poster, a 50/11 might have some odd PFRs here, but a 23/11 is playing from a (possibly mental) chart and will usually have exactly what you expect.

2. MP has coldcalled twice and will have you beat a ton of the time.

3. There are two flush draws, multiple straight draws, and KQ overcards (likely contained within primary draws) still to be concerned about. You will lose a large percentage of the hands where you are currently ahead. Meanwhile you hope you have two outs but you might not.

I really think you need to stop investing in this situation. How can it be profitable to pay another 2BB+ in trying to pick up this pot? I would check and see what happens next. If it goes bet-call or check-bet you should probably lay this down. You will be wrong once in a while but that's the way it goes. Even if you want to call the turn that still is much better than betting out and having it come back two or three bets as it often will. Remember this is the street where MP will declare his hand. You should see what he does before you make your decision.

Regarding the flop, your pot equity is not so hot after it comes back two bets coldcalled. I agree with the call so that you can act after MP on the turn instead of being in the awkward position of betting out and usually getting raised when you are beat.

[Wynton]

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Regarding the flop, your pot equity is not so hot after it comes back two bets coldcalled. I agree with the call so that you can act after MP on the turn instead of being in the awkward position of betting out and usually getting raised when you are beat.

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I don't follow this exactly. What's the problem if we bet first on the turn, get raised and thereby have an easy fold?

[HajiShirazu]

This is a play I try sometimes and it never ever works and I never fold to it either even if I probably should, so really you're just throwing away bets.
Remember, nobody ever folds a hand with a chance of winning in any decent size pot.

[StellarWind]

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I don't follow this exactly. What's the problem if we bet first on the turn, get raised and thereby have an easy fold?

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Just to recap, we are discussing 3-betting the flop and leading the turn when a brick hits.

I doubt that there is any direct value in a flop 3-bet as I think our pot equity is below 1/3 after UTG raises the flop and MP calls two cold. Pot equity includes our highly unfavorable out situation and not just our chance of having the best hand now. So offhand I don't feel like reraising the flop in the first place.

On to the turn action. The first good thing about checking instead of betting is it might come back two bets and allow you to make a cheap fold. This will happen a lot because MP will often have the ten or 88 for his flop action and now he is going to pounce.

The next issue is pot size. If you 3-bet the flop and bet the turn there will be 16 BB in the pot when you get yourself raised. By bet-folding instead of check-calling you have sacrificed your two outs which are worth 5% of that pot. That's an EV cost of about 0.8 BB even though the fold is correct.

Plus bet-folding opens the door to folding the best hand causing a gigantic loss.

The argument in favor of betting the turn is that once in a while it will check through when we have the best hand and perhaps an 80% chance of winning. I don't expect that to happen very often because the initiative does not lie on the button.

[Wynton]

Stellar,

First, I believe we agree that lead betting the flop is good. The interesting question is whether to 3-bet and/or lead the turn.

Now, a tight player has capped pf and then raised our flop bet. This is consistent with him having a top hand (AA-QQ) as well as AK. It is also possible he has 99. Even though he's tight, we know that tight players can show aggression with these types of hands. And the truth is, on this flop, it would make sense for him to raise the flop. MP player is a problem because he's loose and could have anything, including 2 overcards.

I agree that our equity doesn't look great after the utg player raises the flop. But since the pot is big and he would still raise the flop with a few hands that we beat, the main issue to me at this stage is how to get the best information, hopefully at the least cost.

If we just call the flop raise, we might be able to fold if it comes back to us for 2 bets. But here, MP is LP, and likely won't be doing any raising. And UTG is very likely to bet, even with just AK. So I don't feel our info is that good now.

If we 3-bet the flop and it gets capped, we probably need to see the turn, but I'll feel very comfortable knowing I'm behind then, as I doubt UTG will cap without being ahead. Or, if he just calls the 3-bet and then raises our turn, I'll also feel that I have reliable info.

I disagree that there is any worry here that bet/fold will leave us in the dangerous situation of folding the best hand, given the above.

One other possible benefit of 3-betting the flop is that we might convince the MP player to fold.