88 isolation in MP

"As for a plan for the rest of the hand, I would choose to raise the flop to a) try to clean up overcards if I'm ahead (which is not totally ludacris given my reads on these players); and b) find out where I stand by the players' reactions to my raise. If I'm not 3-bet, I bet the turn and river. Otherwise I fold the turn. "

But isn't it pretty obvious that you are WAY behind or very likely to be? 8-8 against 3 opponents is not very good. With a preflop raiser/postflop better to your right, the pre-flop capper to your left, and let's not forget the old lady who was willing to call 4 bets COLD, I would recommend fold. You can be fairly certain that you will be played back at, with the pot getting 3-bet by either the players on either your left or right, so why invest 2 more bets when you plan to fold to any subsequent action?

So... how did this hand play out?

I can be fairly certain that IF I was played back at, then I would be beat. However, I can't be certain that I'm not ahead, given the nature of the players in the hand. If I'm ahead, it would terrible to allow the two players behind me to see a turn for only one bet. I want to charge them to beat me. If I'm behind, then I'm way behind, and I'll find out very quickly. If my math is close to correct, I need to be about 20% certain that I'm ahead here, and I think that number sounds good to me.

[ellipse_87]

What specific hand ranges do you put aggro, tilty, and old lady on? What percentage of each range are you ahead of, and then what is the product of those percentages? That number can't be 20%.

For example, if they all have the same range, you'd have to be ahead of each of them 60% of the time. I haven't done the math with specific combinations, but that doesn't seem likely with this action.

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Your reasoning is too fearful of losing a few extra bets for the chance of winning a large pot. Hero raises, and if it comes back 2 cold we can fold safely. Folding with 14:1 odds is insane.

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Even so, for +EV we'll need to be best like 1 time in 5 or so at showdown. Between both Villains that like their hands and getting drawn out on, are we going to be best that often at SD?

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I'd also like to hear Bodhi's reasoning here, as I'm pretty sure that this hand should be a fold.