A stupid martingale going bust question.

tworooks · #1 07-11-2005, 05:10 PM

Suppose I have a 127minimum bet bankroll(7 progressions) playing roulette with 1 green number, what are the odds of getting to 1000minimum bet before going bust. Assume that once you get to the 7th bet, 64minimum's, you just eat that money and start over. So what I'm asking is what is the likelyhood of earning 873minimum bets before busting. Thanks.

AaronBrown · #2 07-11-2005, 06:37 PM

European wheels with one green number often take only half your bet from a zero (they let the bet ride for the next spin, you get it back if you win, forfeit it if you lose), is that the case in your game? I'm assuming the answer is "no," they play like Americans and take your money when a zero comes up.

The chance of getting seven losses in a row is 0.00645, or 1 chance in 155. The chance of going 873 times without that happening is 0.00352, or 1 in 284.

So I would pay you $100 if you got to 873 wins, if you agreed to pay me $100 if you went bust without ever winning one spin. That's how bad your chances are.

donkeyradish · #3 07-14-2005, 02:17 PM

Try a reverse Martingale

ie. bet 1 unit. If it wins, 'let it ride'. If you win 8 times in a row, go back to step 1

This way your bankroll trickles away very slowly punctuated by occasional big wins, instead of the other way around.

( And when your luck runs out you finally realise how futile Roulette is )

SheetWise · #4 07-15-2005, 01:57 AM

You seem to have a good grasp on the Martingale. I suggest you advance to the Labouchere or d'Alembert progressions. Eagerly anticipating your results.

SheetWise

SheetWise · #5 07-15-2005, 03:44 AM

I take that back. It was rude. It was not funny -- Still, I'm giggling.

Pokerlogist · #6 07-15-2005, 07:12 PM

Here's another fun version of the Martingale that I will call the "slow death" Martingale. It will keep you at the tables a long time before you bust.

After any win, bet only 1 unit.
After every loss, bet the amount you lost + 1 unit

The progression is slow. This will allow you to recover a lot of losses quickly and still play with a modest bankroll. You will be amazed in how long you will last. It gives the illusion of a foolproof system. In fact, I was thinking of charging for it except for a one tiny flaw...

It will still lose in the long run 100% of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]