Folding the nuts?

[Guernica4000]

I need a little help with this hand. I am sure I miss played it but I need to know if I am realizing the error because I am being result orientated or if my math, the chip stacks and the timing supports my later analyzes of the hand.

Multi-table tournament with 300 players left the first payout is 100 players away.
Blinds are 100-200
Chip leader (approximated) = 20,000 tournament
Chip leader table Hero with 12,540
Avg. stack tournament= 3,500

Here is the hand:

Villain has 11,800 and is in MP it is folded to him and he bets 400.
Hero is button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] folded to hero, Hero bets 1,000.
Blinds fold Villain calls. It is heads up.

Flop is
T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets 1,000 villain calls.

Turn is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain goes all-in hero calls.

River is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain wins hand with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Flush

So after losing the tournament I analyzed this hand and I think I should have folded. Here is why:

I was 99.9% sure Villain had the Ace I had been playing with him for about an hour and there was no way in my mind he would bluff or semi-bluff there.

So if I call I win 1/2 the pot or $2,150 3 out of 4 times but if he is on a flush draw and hits I lose 11,800 1 out of 4 times. Now I don't know how to calculate the probability that he is on a flush draw so I need help there.

Second reason to fold is that if I fold I still have 10,000 chips and a chance to win the tournament or at least finish in the money. If I call and win I have 12,700 but if I call and lose I can get crippled needing to get very lucky to come back.

Comments please. Should I have foleded? Why? Why not? Thanks

I think you did the right thing by calling. It's just too unlikely that happens what has happend.
The chance he has a flush draw is about 8% (1/3*1/4). The chance the flush hits is a little over 20% (9/43). For a chance that you are beat about 2% of the time its just not worth giving up 20% of your stack. Just in case you are absolutly sure that he has the flush-draw (in addition to the ace) folding would be right.

Greetings
Dancer

[BasketballNYC]

This is a situation where saying that "the chance he has a flush draw is 8%" is not accurate. Not because of the math but because quite simply the betting line made it a STRONG possibility. If it were a vacuum with no betting then the math stands alone, but it is not. What are the odds he has one of the remaining 3 Aces? Are they the actual hand distribution odds of an A being dealt? Of course not. He opened raised, that increases the odds he has an A. He pushed in where an A was the nuts and he had to be afraid that his opponent who had him covered had one as well.

Back to the actual question, this is a really tough spot. I think caution may be the better part of valor here. In a cash game you would call, but in a tournament, with his read, I think he is not chopping it a small percentage of the time. There is some money in there but the risk vs. reward is so high.

Two things missing from people's math. You can't be %99 sure he has an ace. He could have two pair of various kinds, so I really think you have to factor in at least some chance he doesn't have an A.

The other factor is that you have 3 outs to a full house. So approximately %6 of the time you'll win the whole pot, so you really have to subtract that from his chance of winning the whole pot with a flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
The other factor is that you have 3 outs to a full house

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm..are you sure? lol

Bah, you're right, that was stupid.

I did want to add tho, that his call on the flop was terrible.

[mikewvp]

He has 4 outs to win the whole pot and 33 cards to split. 4300 in the pot on the turn. Villain bets 9800 into 4300, hero is calling 9800 to win 14100.
4 outs to win -> (+14100) (.08696) = +1226.09
9 outs to lose -> (-9800) (.1957) = -1917.39
33 outs to tie -> (+2150) (.7174) = +1542.39

EV is approximately + 851. I think my math is right, anyone can double check me plz.

Also, this question is still ridiculous because he doesn't always have a flush draw, and so your EV is actually much higher on average, but for the specific situation you are still +EV to call the all in bet on the river. As you can see the EV is significant, its not even a close decision.

Mike

[Hybrid_11]

Defintly cant fold here. Atleast if the postflop action is correct and he went all in on the turn before the flush hit on the river how can you fold. Like you originally said this is being way to result oriented. Hands like these are inevitable. They will happen every now and again. Better luck next time

[Pog0]

gotta love villain's turn play though.

[RiverDood]

Let's roll the movie back a little further.

If you're really worried about tangling with another big stack, why not bet the flop more aggressively? Bet pot (T2300) or so. He'll read that as you representing a set and not wanting to give him odds to draw out with his A hoping for a K. He'll probably let go of the hand there unless he's also got AK. In which case you end up chopping the blinds.

You don't make a ton of money if you play the hand that way, but you reduce your going-bust risk significantly. And given your big lead over the average stack, there's an argument for wrapping this hand up fast and then going back to your sure-fire moneymaker of grinding down the smaller players steadily, orbit after orbit.

Folding the turn strikes me as horribly weak. Don't play risky hands like AK if you feel compelled to run in such situations.

The river card is a crime against humanity. Sorry to hear abt it. But you did get your money in with the best of it, which is all we can do.