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#31
09-19-2005, 07:51 PM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
[ QUOTE ]
If the mathematics work out equally, you are always best off raising as you give yourself the opportunity to make better hands fold. [/ QUOTE ] In heads up situation, I'd generally agree. In a 6-handed pot with two premium hands already involved? Don't kid yourself. You're not folding anything better on the flop. 
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#32
09-19-2005, 08:33 PM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
[ QUOTE ]
In heads up situation, I'd generally agree. In a 6-handed pot with two premium hands already involved? Don't kid yourself. You're not folding anything better on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Not always, but sometimes. Not to mention you add some disguise to your hand as people will potentially put you on other hands when you three bet. There simply are too many reasons to 3-bet the more I've participated in this discussion and further thought about the hand so long after the fact (I initially wrote the article, I think, six or seven months ago). Give me any situation where you believe it's even money pre-flop and it is without question the right move to push as hard as you can in position in limit poker. That extra bet gives opens up doors that the call simply does not. It's not a matter of kidding myself ... it's knowing the reality of the situation in a live game like that. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
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#33
09-28-2005, 09:56 PM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
[ QUOTE ]
*I know someone is jumping out thinking that "within our means" shouldn't be an issue with making EV plays, but this is assuming an unlimited bankroll, and, I don't know about you, but I'll make $100 bets every day of the week on a 50.01 vs. 49.99 gamble, but ask me to make $1,000,000 bets on the same odds, and I'm out of the there. [/ QUOTE ] So I surmise that your Bankroll is in the millions. That is, assuming typical risk profile. BillC
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#34
09-29-2005, 09:21 AM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
[ QUOTE ]
So I surmise that your Bankroll is in the millions. That is, assuming typical risk profile. BillC [/ QUOTE ] Inquiries about personal details ahoy! Suffice it to say that I know the amount one should have to make certain bets and that I would be adequately covered to make the bet I talked about at those stakes. That is neither here nor there, though.... The point is that while talking about EV plays is fine and dandy, there are some EV bets you should NOT take. I would not mind that play at $100 a shot ... but not at $1,000,000 - even though the odds are the same. That is the point; hopefully it's straight-forward enough. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
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#35
09-29-2005, 10:55 PM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
Barron,
I only wanted to point out that you can quantify how to factor in variance and bankroll. Otherwise what good does it do to say that just EV is not sufficient for decison-making? You have to quantify things. I assumed a typical Kelly fraction to compute how big your bankroll must be to bet 100$ on a 5051:4949 shot. I mean, would you bet 500$ or 1000$? The topic "Expectation isn't Everything", is discussed in my July Magazine article. In particular, a close call on a longshot draw is might be best avoided, depending on the size of your bankroll.
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#36
09-30-2005, 05:25 AM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
[ QUOTE ]
In particular, a close call on a longshot draw is might be best avoided, depending on the size of your bankroll. [/ QUOTE ] This is a key reason why you shouldn't play at stakes beyond your means. Whether at poker - or flipping coins - or anything in between - you have to make that determination. Far be it that I think we disagree with each other ... or that I disagree with what you talked about in your article. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
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#37
10-08-2005, 07:23 PM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
i just read the last month's article.
and it makes me cringe.
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#38
10-16-2005, 08:47 AM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
[ QUOTE ]
Barron, You are right that you should 3-bet pre-flop due to your pot equity. Even if you are dominated by the raiser. But the last sentence of your article is very misleading. It implies that the purpose of the pre-flop raise is to make the pot big enough for you to draw post-flop. The real reason for the pre-flop raise is your pre-flop equity. The real benefit of increasing the pot size is that when you do flop a big hand, you increase the likelihood that your oppoents will chase you with a hand that is drawing dead. [/ QUOTE ] Since I just linked to this thread from another thread, as I said in that thread, there are bits I would expand upon and clarify, but the above quote is definitely one area I'd change and Max is 100% correct in his correction. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
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#39
10-16-2005, 05:35 PM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
I don't play live so much anymore, but when I do if I saw an UTG raise from a tight player and 4 callers I cant imagine having positive pot equity. Not only are you going to have to make at least 2 pair to win, the deck is VERY rich in low cards. If I can't have a pair here I dont want to be in it, but if i'm playing a suited connector i want it lower than JTs. There just isnt enough left in the deck for a hand that needs to catch a lot.
The other problem is with calling 2 bets cold. I the situation you decribed on the flop and turn, i would expect the pot to get 3bet about 50-60% of the time and 4bet about 30-40% of the time. If im in a place that allowed 5 bets I wouldnt have even considered calling. Am I just really bad at game selection?
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#40
10-16-2005, 05:43 PM
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Re: Barron\'s Article.
You mentioned the five bet thing and, as a point of reference that is something I should always include when talking about Foxwoods, is that it's a four-bet place unlike, say, Vegas where you can five-bet.
I don't know about your game selection one way or the other. I will say that game selection is huge, though, which I'm sure you do know. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
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