Passing top pair, good kicker on Party - is it possible?

[Big Dave D]

Normally top pair, good kicker is a hand you take to the showdown in Party madness, imho, unless huge action. Here I passed to one check raise (no knowledge of foes):

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $15.
UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.66 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.33 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (10.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: 11.33 BB

My thoughts at the time were that check raising two players who had already invested one bet was a lot stronger, and less likely to signify a draw, than just check raising me alone. But the odds were probably there if hes hit two pair to call to see the river. But passing top pair good kicker sure felt strange. Any thoughts or comments?

[steveyz]

I don't think I have this fold in me at Party 15/30 against an unknown. Although there's not that much you can beat except AT/A8/etc. A7s and A9s seem likely here. But this assume that UTG isn't a lag, and sometimes that's not a good assumption. I don't know. If the tables have been getting tighter post flop like some of the regulars have suggested, it's probably a good laydown.

[nykenny]

good fold..

call would be ok too.

turn fold would be slightly better, IMO

the pot is pretty big so call turn and river is ok too...

but i vote turn fold as the best move, river fold as 2nd best, and river call as third best.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Can people honestly say this hand won't win 10% of the time at typical 15-30 PP? Pot odds are there.

Judging from the responses to this post so far, i begin to see the true reason for so many so-called "experts" having recent trouble online.

[Senor Choppy]

If it's only winning 10% of the time, pot odds are definitely not there.

[LAGmaniac]

... doesn't the 11.33 to 1 pot odds he's getting on the river mean he only needs to be good 8.11% of the time?

I think the calculation is bet/total pot size x 100 (1/12.33 x 100) = percent of times he needs to win to break even.

[Clarkmeister]

"but i vote turn fold as the best move"

Reraise is a far better option than fold. Are you serious? Fold the turn? I mean, I'm like dumbfounded. That's got to be suicide in those games, especially in a pot that big.


This is at Party
You have top pair with big stick
This means do not fold

[TXTiger]

Calling the turn raise in the 15-30 is always tough, because there is a lot of semibluffing. I agree that check raising both of you is strong, but still does not rule out a draw or made hand + a draw.

I count 8.33 bb when it comes back to you on the turn, so it's 8:1. But if you are going to call the riverbet then it's really more like 4.5:1. I think you need to decide before you call the turn whether you are going to call the river. I would definitely not call then fold.

If an utg player hit 2 pair here then what would he hit? It almost has to be A7 or A9. It can't be K9 or worse unless you know this player to be poor. So you are drawing at 3 jacks + 3 kings at 7:1 to win (the 3 nines could give you a split). But wait, both red jacks put a flush out, so they may not be good. And you have another player calling along. What if he has a red QTs or many other bad possibilities. Of course your opponents can't have everything, but we don't really know which cards they are rooting for. I think the odds are not even close to there to call and try to hit 2 pair when you may not even win. Of course if utg has a set then your done . You could be way behind here. I limp with AK in ep sometimes just so hands like AJ will raise me, don't completely rule out AK. There is a lot that beats you.

Let me switch gears now. UTG could very well have a hand like Axd, JTdh, KQd, basically any type of straight flush draw or a pair and a flush draw. That's a lot of hands, and many of them are just the type of hands that would limp utg. So there is a definite possibility you are ahead, but you won't know until you call the river bet.

I would fold a majority of the time. You raised preflop, there is an AK on the board, and utg check raised 2 players. If your hand is good now, I think you lose on the river at least 1/3 of the time. You could potentially lose to and heart, diamond, or any card 9 or larger.

If this person was a habitual bluffer I would call everytime. Some people semibluff almost every draw in the 15/30. You can't let these people steal your pots. On a hand like this you might also want to consider your table image. Have you folded to several turn raises lately? Or maybe raised light preflop and ended up folding. If so lean towards calling.

Bottom line is either decide there is a good enough chance you are ahead and call the turn/river. Or decide you are probably behind with a decent chance to lose even if you are ahead and fold the turn. My opinion is that the odds are not there to take a card off when you have no idea if that card will win for you. I think calling then folding the river is the worst of the 3 options.

[Senor Choppy]

The main decision was on the turn, when a fold is reasonable given his effective odds.

[Big Dave D]

I'm not sure whether it was you or Dynasty that said you dont make money at limit holdem by making big passes on the river. As a pot limit and mostly Omaha convertee, this has been a great lesson to learn from and live by, and one that seems even more appropriate on Party where madness so often prevails.

However the check raise on the turn struck me quite hard. It seems either a strong play by a strong player or a clueless play by a clueless player, after all he was against two players who had already invested one bet this round and being Party, were unlikely to fold.

I like the idea of three-betting to get a free showdown, it did cross my mind but the check raise move multiway just froze my action.

Having called the turn are you saying that a river call is compulsory? As I have said, normally I would just call down, and headsup I would absolutely do so, but I had fixed in my mind that I was beat, and didnt improve and so 12:1, with a caller behind me, still wasnt enough. I'm now thinking that it probably was.

DD