Hand...

[DeathDonkey]

I think this is an excellent fold. One that is hard to make but everytime I call it down they have exactly what you thought anyway and you were totally dead to two outs. Just making this fold should be like negative tilt inducing for yourself.

-DeathDonkey

I actually didn't read your analysis the first time through (good work, btw, it shows that it's close). A couple things:

You did forget 45s (which we passed). I think you gave way too much weight to the FD 3 betting. I think you were way too conservative with the number of K combos. The weight for 3 betting with a K should be close to 100%. And this final thing, which I'm not sure about, but I think you're actually calculating the K combos wrong. Since the turn bet doesn't give us any information we should be going by how likely he was to hold a hand on the flop.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
You did forget 45s (which we passed).

[/ QUOTE ]
This will lead us closer to a call down.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you gave way too much weight to the FD 3 betting.

[/ QUOTE ]
Less then 1 in 5 times with his flush draw is way too much credit?

[ QUOTE ]
I think you were way too conservative with the number of K combos.

[/ QUOTE ]
Considering K9 and KT may not even call, I think my estimate is pretty close to the truth.

[ QUOTE ]
And this final thing, which I'm not sure about, but I think you're actually calculating the K combos wrong. Since the turn bet doesn't give us any information we should be going by how likely he was to hold a hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am pretty sure I am counting the combos right. There are only 2 possible kings he can hold, so you have to start from there in your counting. I am trying to figure out what we should do at the turn, so we can use any information up until our move.

Well, we can agree to disagree on some of that stuff, then, though now you know why I'd disagree. I'd be pretty adament about the FD not 3 betting anywhere near 16% of the time and that he can hold way more kings (he is a 34% VPIP). Thinking about it now, though, you're right about the calculation part. I muddle my math sometimes.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, we can agree to disagree on some of that stuff, then, though now you know why I'd disagree. I'd be pretty adament about the FD not 3 betting anywhere near 16% of the time and that he can hold way more kings (he is a 34% VPIP).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is basically what the debate should focus on. I like doing these types of math analysis, because instead of debating over a general question, we can now ask ourselves how often he is check raising the flush draw, or semi-cold calling with his kings. If we could come to a general consensus (or at least range of possibilities), then we would know whether we should call down or not.

You don't happen to have an excel sheet set up for this sort of thing, do you? I've been meaning to steal one of those and figure the program out for myself.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]

It's a theme of my posts because I think it's what holds solid 10/20 players from being successful at higher limits. And I think many players don't even realize they are doing it. They just say, call down he'll have a flush draw here often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a struggling 20/40'er -- 30/60'er I think you're right. I made a big step up in my 5/10 game when I was able to fold top pair on the turn, or on the river after calling one bet to see if I improved/counterfeited the raiser.

Obviously, that is a move that is much more difficult to make in a highly aggressive game where you often have much better reason to believe that your opponent might be bluffing, and I *do* think that there's so much confusion about that that it holds people back. Like you, I'm not sure what the right action is in this hand, but the fact is that I'm very close to thinking it's a fold . . . but when I'm at the tables, in the heat of play, I rarely have the presence of mind to make that decision. Because unlike the 5/10 game, my default is automatically to think they're full of crap. Or, at least, I Have Odds to call down to find out.

But here? King on the board, 3-betting-checkraising the preflop raiser? I don't think this is one of those obvious bluffin' places.

Then again, after reading ALL1N's latest post, I may never fold postflop again . . .

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't happen to have an excel sheet set up for this sort of thing, do you? I've been meaning to steal one of those and figure the program out for myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, but I really want to write a program that lets you put in % for different hand ranges, and give parameters of how villain will act given certain cards. It would then calculate your exact EV given the assumptions. I don't think it would be too hard to make, but I havn't written a program in quite some time, so it probably wont get done any time soon.

Doing it by hand isn't all that hard once you get used to it.