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#11
12-13-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
hi krishan. i fold this preflop against a good tag.
the turn situation is beyond my understanding. i think its a very complicated spot. i dont like the river check. i dont think your hand is strong enough to checkraise. bet and let him pay you off with a queen or whatever hes got. 
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#12
12-13-2005, 08:02 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet river because I'm not confident villain will bet a Q or 9 on the river. If he does there's a good chance he'll bet fold. Also I don't think there's many draws he will have to bluff. [/ QUOTE ] He did fold. But I thought he would call with a Q or weak ace. [ QUOTE ] Did you consider check/folding the turn? I know it sounds really weak and I probably would bet as well. However, most guys 3bet JK preflop so we can rule that out I think. TK gets 3bet a lot too so that should be discounted. I think very few TAGs in that game can resist raising the flop with an OESD or flush draw. If they don't it is probably b/c they are raising the turn where you will be bet/folding I assume. So basically you're hoping villain has a gutshot draw but these raise the flop sometimes. The Q9 flop means there are a lot of these though: 8T, TK (discounted), 8J. I think this guy has a Q or a better nine a LOT here. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are right. He will have a Q or 9 here a lot but I didn't think this guy was going to punish me with a raise. After all it's an ace high flop and the wussball mentality around here is to get to showdown at all costs. Plus just calling straight down isn't a horrible line/prevents bad folds etc... [ QUOTE ] I would probably bet the turn as well and check/folding might be pretty exploitable, but how close do you think this is to a checkfold? [/ QUOTE ] It's close. I don't mind a turn check fold. I tend to screwplay quite a bit (and on my coaches request, I'm trying to increase) so this turn will go check raise at least as often as it will go check fold. Krishan
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#13
12-13-2005, 08:03 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
[ QUOTE ]
hi krishan. i fold this preflop against a good tag. the turn situation is beyond my understanding. i think its a very complicated spot. i dont like the river check. i dont think your hand is strong enough to checkraise. bet and let him pay you off with a queen or whatever hes got. [/ QUOTE ] Hmm. I agree with everything Tstone said. Maybe he's not so bad at poker after all.
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#14
12-13-2005, 08:04 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
oups, didnt see that you hit a two-pair on the river. ignore everything I have said.
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#15
12-13-2005, 08:04 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
[ QUOTE ]
i dont like the river check. i dont think your hand is strong enough to checkraise. bet and let him pay you off with a queen or whatever hes got. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure about the rest but I'm sure my hand is strong enough to check raise the river with. What exactly do I have to be afraid of? A badly played flush is it as far as I can see. (Outside chance of a 2 pair including the 7 both because I have one and also because the flush might protect me from being 3-bet anyway) Krishan
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#16
12-13-2005, 08:07 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
You're going for the c/r right?
I would expect him to have raised the flop or the turn with the FD, so u have to assume u're still ahead. If so, I don't like this line on this board. I think villain has a weak, SD worthy hand as he just called the flop and turn. I think he will always call a bet here, but won't bet some of these hands (9s, maybe weak queens) and prob won't pay off a c/r. Also, ur line looks like u're going to call his bet, so i think that he might only bet his stronger queens and aces, which i think he has less of the time. He won't bet 9s and i honestly don't think he will bet- bluff here as i don't know what hand he could have that isn't a pair and thinks u will fold a better no pair hand. I think that he may bluff-raise this river more than he will bet bluff as the folding equity would be higher and ur check seems to be with the intention of calling. So I would bet and call a raise. Edit- sorry, i took a lot of time to write this, when i first clicked there were two responses. Now a lot i had to say had already been said. I do think that u're hand is strong enough to c/r with.
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#17
12-13-2005, 08:07 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i dont like the river check. i dont think your hand is strong enough to checkraise. bet and let him pay you off with a queen or whatever hes got. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure about the rest but I'm sure my hand is strong enough to check raise the river with. What exactly do I have to be afraid of? A badly played flush is it as far as I can see. (Outside chance of a 2 pair including the 7 both because I have one and also because the flush might protect me from being 3-bet anyway) Krishan [/ QUOTE ] Most of the time, given how he's played the hand, I don't see him calling the c/r but I can see him calling a normal bet a lot. When he calls the c/r I don't know that your hand will be good > 50% of the time. Given how weakly he has played the hand I don't think he'll bluff or value bet the river nearly as often as he'll call. Rob
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#18
12-13-2005, 08:09 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
i shouldnt have used the term not strong enough cause thats not true. its really unlikely the opponent has a better twopair unless he hit a 7 kicker since hes just called both streets. i dont like the river checkraise more or less because the board is scary and i think alot of pairs check down when they would have called. its hard to see him having an ace here but a queen is likely. i suppose a queen will often bet but a 2p2 tag should strongly be considering folding to the river checkraise. btw a flush is a real possibility.
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#19
12-13-2005, 08:10 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm not sure about the rest but I'm sure my hand is strong enough to check raise the river with. What exactly do I have to be afraid of? A badly played flush is it as far as I can see. (Outside chance of a 2 pair including the 7 both because I have one and also because the flush might protect me from being 3-bet anyway) Krishan [/ QUOTE ] Most of the time, given how he's played the hand, I don't see him calling the c/r but I can see him calling a normal bet a lot. When he calls the c/r I don't know that your hand will be good > 50% of the time. Given how weakly he has played the hand I don't think he'll bluff or value bet the river nearly as often as he'll call. Rob [/ QUOTE ] Okay, what hands beat me? Both you and TStone said this and it didn't occur to me. Can you spell it out for me? I figured I was ahead by a huge amount. Krishan
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#20
12-13-2005, 08:13 PM
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Re: It\'s too quiet in here....
[ QUOTE ]
i would bet bc he will call you with any q or 9 and he wont bet those. hell, he might not even bet an ace. [/ QUOTE ] Really? I bet an ace and call a raise(most of the time) all day in his shoes. I would definitely value bet a good Q there too. I think everyone who says I should just lead the river is right mostly because I don't think a cr is getting called all that often. Krishan
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