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  #31  
Old 12-11-2005, 05:51 AM
scotty34 scotty34 is offline
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Default Re: Stats post...

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bitch please, I purposefully didnt post all my hands for tonight so you guys wouldn't hang yourselves from your shower rods





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Damn, I got owned.

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  #32  
Old 12-11-2005, 10:52 AM
krishanleong krishanleong is offline
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Default Re: Stats post...

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Can a lot of these downswings be because of the rake increase a while back?

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No.

Krishan

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i don't understand how you can discount this so easily. even a .25bb/100 drop in win rates can have a dramatic effect on probability of a downswing, can't it? I'm not sure if the rake increase has been quantified but IIRC estimates were in this neighborhood

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Think about it logically. People who are on downswings are winning players. The deviation from their predicted win rate is greater than the increase in rake. Sure the rake didn't help but it's not the main culprit.

Krishan
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  #33  
Old 12-11-2005, 10:54 AM
krishanleong krishanleong is offline
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but there's also a tendency around here for someone to be in a 300BB downswing and be told "well...that's bound to happen sooner or later for any winning player."

the fact remains that it could very well also be indicative of some really crappy play and it's dangerous to always turn to the 'variance is wild' logic to explain away any or every downswing.

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You might have missed part of my point. There is always crappy play in your game. Downswing or upswing you should ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS be working on your game. If you are always working on your game, then when you have a downswing you don't need to worry quite so much because you are already doing the things you need to do to pull out of it.

Krishan
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  #34  
Old 12-11-2005, 10:59 AM
krishanleong krishanleong is offline
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Default Re: Stats post...

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here's a pic that illustrates the silliness of 5k stat posts

my night tonight:






I run pretty consistently at 24/17 and -1.7bb/100, so you can imagine what these hands would do to a 5k sample

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If you are a good player, you should play twice as many hands in half the time for the same results

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Please, no more bragging in my thread. Content only. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]



Krishan
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  #35  
Old 12-11-2005, 10:59 AM
Spicymoose Spicymoose is offline
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Default Re: Stats post...

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There is always crappy play in your game. Downswing or upswing you should ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS be working on your game.

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I just thought this should be said again.
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  #36  
Old 12-11-2005, 12:59 PM
jba jba is offline
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Default Re: Stats post...

[ QUOTE ]

Think about it logically. People who are on downswings are winning players. The deviation from their predicted win rate is greater than the increase in rake. Sure the rake didn't help but it's not the main culprit.


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I'd like to think I am thinking about it logically [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

when your true win rate goes from Xbb/100 to X-.25bb/100, there is some downswing of Y BBs that was previously statistically impossible but no longer is. So it's very possible people are reporting downswings now that could not have happened before the bump. And whatever probability each player had of going on a 200 or 300 or 400bb downswing is obviously higher now, especially when you consider people who were marginal winners to begin with.
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  #37  
Old 12-11-2005, 01:13 PM
krishanleong krishanleong is offline
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Default Re: Stats post...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Think about it logically. People who are on downswings are winning players. The deviation from their predicted win rate is greater than the increase in rake. Sure the rake didn't help but it's not the main culprit.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to think I am thinking about it logically [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

when your true win rate goes from Xbb/100 to X-.25bb/100, there is some downswing of Y BBs that was previously statistically impossible but no longer is. So it's very possible people are reporting downswings now that could not have happened before the bump. And whatever probability each player had of going on a 200 or 300 or 400bb downswing is obviously higher now, especially when you consider people who were marginal winners to begin with.

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I think we are agreeing again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Basically it's a factor but not the overwhelming one. A 1 B/100 winner shouldn't be a huge amount more likely to go on a massive downswing after the rake increase. And if he does go on a massive downswing the main culprit will be variance.

Krishan
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  #38  
Old 12-11-2005, 05:22 PM
Entity Entity is offline
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most winning 10/20 players I know have a sb folded to steal around 85. 86 is fine

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Really? This surprises me. I think my project for tonight is going to be to dig around in the archives for good posts on SB defense, as if this is the case, I'm seriously spewing chips.

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My folded SB to steal is 85ish, and I play more ultrashort than Krishan does. My folded BB to steal is only ~45 though, and my att steal is ~40, which leaves me at like 29/22 rather than 21/17.

Rob
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