NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29

My only problem with this pick is that it conflicts with the basis of the system.

You reason, rightly, that handicappers know that the public tends to overbet ranked teams and especially so if the ranked teams is the underdog to an unranked team. Hence, they would only make an unranked team even a small favorite if they thought they were really going to kill the ranked team.

That normally makes a lot of sense.

However, the handicappers also happen to know that teams with massive nationwide fan bases like UNC in basketball and Notre Dame in football get overbet regardless of the line.

This appears to be a case of the line setters realizing that UNC will get overbet at home far more than Illinois will get overbet just because they are ranked. Hence, they make UNC the favorite in what should probably be a pick'em game.

[scott8]

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Isn't it at least possible that NC is favored because teams that win the national title one year tend to be overvalued in the following season?

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This is certainly possible and something to consider. However, I think in general you miss the point behind the entire "system". The reason you bet on the favored unranked team is that the public has usually given you at least a few points in value.
Another words perhaps the game should be -5, but the public likes to bet favorites so the line is -2. Obviously this is only one factor in play, as you point out defending National Champions can be overvalued as well.

No Chance takes the approach that you can't pick and choose which game you like, you follow the trend, and have come out ahead in the end in almost every season.

The bigger picture should allow the sports bettor to realize how you make money betting on sports. You can argue until you are blue in the face about who will outrebound who and which team has the better shooters, but the real trick is just finding value in the lines.

-SC

Point taken. Just trying to say that one system may indicate value on one team but another system may indicate value on the other team and that you shouldn't limit yourself to just one system when analyzing the game. Good luck to you whatever you decide to do.

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My only problem with this pick is that it conflicts with the basis of the system.

You reason, rightly, that handicappers know that the public tends to overbet ranked teams and especially so if the ranked teams is the underdog to an unranked team. Hence, they would only make an unranked team even a small favorite if they thought they were really going to kill the ranked team.

That normally makes a lot of sense.

However, the handicappers also happen to know that teams with massive nationwide fan bases like UNC in basketball and Notre Dame in football get overbet regardless of the line.

This appears to be a case of the line setters realizing that UNC will get overbet at home far more than Illinois will get overbet just because they are ranked. Hence, they make UNC the favorite in what should probably be a pick'em game.

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This is also good analysis and is another way to look at it.

[NoChance]

I finshed college in 1992. I have folled this trend since 1990. It has never had a losing year in that time. I can't prove it. If someone has access to a database or wants to look it up, I would love the exact data in print to point out how good it is. It's also never won EVERY game. ISome games will lose. NO game is a lock. However, since it's never lost over an entire season for me and I can't see into the future to tell if this is one of those times it's going to lose, I'm betting on the trend.

I know very little about the teams sometimes. I wont be able to give you reasons why North Carolina is a good bet. I don't even care. I just know that Vegas is not in the business to put out bad lines on games that the public has lots of exposure to. I will guarantee that people will respond exactly the way shamu did. I repeat, that is exactly why it works. Those of you who followed it last year will remember the exact kind of thing being posted in those threads. The fact is, people like betting on ranked teams when they are getting points. This gives the unranked team an extra couple of points I like to call value points. Over the long run, this adds up to a winning percentage.

It looks like the line is at -1.5 at most places now. If you read the article I posted above you will see that the sharps are not taking North Carolina tonight because they are unsure of how good they are. BUT, they are not taking Illinois either. They just don't know. This is probably why the line is dropping. The general public is taking the ranked team while the sharps are not responding.

That is all.

Seriously, if someone has the data for the last 15-20 years, I would be greatful.

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I finshed college in 1992. I have folled this trend since 1990. It has never had a losing year in that time. I can't prove it. If someone has access to a database or wants to look it up, I would love the exact data in print to point out how good it is. It's also never won EVERY game. ISome games will lose. NO game is a lock. However, since it's never lost over an entire season for me and I can't see into the future to tell if this is one of those times it's going to lose, I'm betting on the trend.

I know very little about the teams sometimes. I wont be able to give you reasons why North Carolina is a good bet. I don't even care. I just know that Vegas is not in the business to put out bad lines on games that the public has lots of exposure to. I will guarantee that people will respond exactly the way shamu did. I repeat, that is exactly why it works. Those of you who followed it last year will remember the exact kind of thing being posted in those threads. The fact is, people like betting on ranked teams when they are getting points. This gives the unranked team an extra couple of points I like to call value points. Over the long run, this adds up to a winning percentage.

It looks like the line is at -1.5 at most places now. If you read the article I posted above you will see that the sharps are not taking North Carolina tonight because they are unsure of how good they are. BUT, they are not taking Illinois either. They just don't know. This is probably why the line is dropping. The general public is taking the ranked team while the sharps are not responding.

That is all.

Seriously, if someone has the data for the last 15-20 years, I would be greatful.

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Thanks for the info. Also agree with your analysis in general, but I think in this particular matchup, Poppa has a good point. Ranked teams may be public teams but UNC may be the MORE public team, even when unranked, especially since they are defending champs.

[Indiana]

I took Illinois, -2. I just cannot see UNC doing this tonight.

Indy

[bugstud]

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I took Illinois, -2. I just cannot see UNC doing this tonight.

Indy

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enlighten me.

-U of I fan

[NoChance]

Meh, you guys may have a point but would the same people who overbet North Carolina still do so knowing they lost their top 7 scorers? I doubt it. I could be wrong.

[kyro]

Thanks NoChance, I'll be on it this year. I'm also doing my own trend. Fading PSU in EVERY GAME THEY PLAY.