(22) How can this call be -EV$?

[golfcchs]

200/400 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL)
Table Table 67056 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: TiltMaster00 (1835)
Seat 2: floridatop5 (1265)
Seat 3: transpo48 (1550)
Seat 6: Damage3000 (3350)
Damage3000 posts small blind (100)
TiltMaster00 posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TiltMaster00 [ As, Kd ]
floridatop5 folds.
transpo48 folds.
Damage3000 raises (3250) to 3350
Damage3000 is all-In.
TiltMaster00 calls (1635)


It looks like this is negative EV$ acourding to ICM. Really hard to believe this though.

You are up against the one guy that can bust you. Might as well fold and steal blinds from the other two short stacks. Coinflips are not the way to win tournaments.

[golfcchs]

I will not be against pairs very often so it will not a becoin flip. Also acording to ICM I should be folding jacks here.

[splashpot]

Dude, you must be putting the villian on one tight ass range when you do the ICM calcs. Seriously, if you were the villian, wouldn't you be pushing with a huge range?

[golfcchs]

even with 100% it is negative.

Seems to me there's no reason to take risks like this on the bubble.

Then again, I'd call too.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I will not be against pairs very often so it will not a becoin flip. Also acording to ICM I should be folding jacks here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will you please stop making unqualified statements like this which simply aren't true? Thanks.

eastbay

When you lose, your equity decreases 100%, when you win it only goes up 50%, you don't gain enough when you win to offset the possibility of losing, because there will still be three solid stacks remaing even if you double up.

On the flip side, SB has very little to lose pushing complete garbage, because you shouldn't be calling with anything but premium hands and he's far from crippled even if you call and win, while he's sitting pretty if he busts you (and gets the amusement of doing it with 72o as a side benefit).

[golfcchs]

Whats not ture? I am not attacking ICM I just thought this was an easy call and I think a lot of 2+2'ers would have made it.

[DeathbySuckout]

I would rather lay this down and try to out play the other two short stacks, than take a coin flip here.