TT facing 2 on the flop

Aviston · #1 09-19-2005, 02:25 AM

Multi-tabling, first couple of orbits, no reads.

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 raises, 1 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP3 raises, Hero ...?

TheHip41 · #2 09-19-2005, 02:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Multi-tabling, first couple of orbits, no reads.

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 raises, 1 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP3 raises, Hero ...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise or fold. I will usually raise in this situation if I have some sort of reads. Without reads, folding cant be too bad.

A lot of the time I'll 3-bet this, and the BB just folds. If he caps, or donk bets the turn, you have a better idea of where you are at.

#3 09-19-2005, 09:40 AM

If Mp3 is a reasonable player, he will have something like 99-AA or AK capping preflop.
AK ++ 99: 22 combinations

JJ-AA : 24 combinations.

This means that you are behind a bit more often than ahead PF. If he is not capping AK here, you are behind the vast majority of his range.
(AKs and 99 : 8 combinations vs 24).

UTG betting into two people who capped preflop after calling PF himself is a bit mysterious. He could be betting a flushdraw, OESD or something like an overplayed A8, but he might also have you beat with a set or a big slowplayed PP.

If you are ahead against a flush and AK, you will obviously at a minimum have to dodge clubs, A's and K's on the turn and river, giving your hand something like 50% chance to make it against the combined 15 outs your oppositions has, if my math is correct.

All in all, I thing you will win this hand no more than around 1/5 of the time, maybe less, and the chance of a continued raising war is obvious.

On the other hands, the pot is already massive, and it would be a disaster to fold the best hand.

All in all I guess this means I would 3-bet while expecting to loose. If this makes them both slow down, I would see a showdown unless an A falls. If the flop gets capped, I would have to fold to a turn bet, unless I get to close the action with a single bet and no scarecard falls.

I dont think folding on the flop would be a big mistake though.

Please forgive my rather long post - it indicates that I am not sure what to do here myself :-).
I am interested in your comments.

SenecaJim · #4 09-19-2005, 11:11 AM

I think Yentz gave a great answer. I think alot of times in small stakes reading would help some, but mostly math. This situation is one that cries out for needing some kind of read. ( Which is why Yentz had to end with not too sure himself ).

A lot of weak player will play an AK like this after the flop, even AQs or AJs when misses flopping flush draw. They love the pretty hand and think being very aggressive is their best chance and hey, "got myself 6 outs probably maybe any old how."

Just knowing if you are up against a "winning player" might help. I would have to fight back until I saw the turn card and the action at the very least.

Aviston · #5 09-19-2005, 11:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of weak player will play an AK like this after the flop, even AQs or AJs when misses flopping flush draw. They love the pretty hand and think being very aggressive is their best chance and hey, "got myself 6 outs probably maybe any old how."

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I admit I just moved to 2/4 this week so I am not overly familar with the playing style. However, it seems to me that a strong, aggressive player may play AK/AQ like this and not a weak player as you indicated. Especially if his hand included at least a single club.

UTG+1's donk bet really shouldn't represent a big hand considering he's facing two PF raisers with the capper directly to his left. One would think a set or a slowplayed large PP would check raise this flop. MP3 could easily (in my opinion) be raising overcards containing a club with the intention of knocking out my overcards and buying himself a free look at the river. The pot is quite large at this point, and one would think he'd be doing whatever he could to take it down.

@bsolute_luck · #6 09-19-2005, 11:38 AM

fold. UTG concerns me calling all that preflop and donkbetting that flop indicates trips not a flush draw or some junk hand, and unless it is A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], i seriousbly doubt MP3 is raising with nothing and you're screwed. 3-bet if you had the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

ErrantNight · #7 09-19-2005, 12:33 PM

i don't see what's wrong with a call here

Aviston · #8 09-19-2005, 01:03 PM

It seems to me that if I continue here it's because I feel my hand may still be best. It's obviously a vulnerable hand, however, and with a chance to send 2 more back to the donk bettor, I can't imagine that a call here is correct.

I had never really thought about calling here. I saw this is as a pure raise or fold situation.

ErrantNight · #9 09-19-2005, 01:13 PM

lots of people who used to check and call too much who need to learn to raise and fold most of the time miss situations where a call might be correct...

here, you have unknowns and a draw-heavy board, but your hand might be best. there's a lot of cards that you would hate to see on the turn, but the pot is large. you'd like to see the turn cheaply before seeing whether it's worth getting to showdown. plus, there's always the chance you hit a ten. in other words... this is a call.

Buckmulligan · #10 09-19-2005, 01:14 PM

Facing the cold call makes this hand a lot easier; fold.