Automatic all in...my buddy disagrees

[ChuckyB]

Am I right? I can't possibly justify passing this up, can I?

I ORIGINALLY POSTED THIS AS "AUTOMATIC CALL?" SORRY ABOUT THAT...


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter

SB (t1500)
Hero (t480)
UTG (t3670)
MP (t1415)
Button (t935)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t400</font>, MP calls t400, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t300

[treeofwisdom7]

your buddy is right

how many chips are you gonna have on the flop?

[lastchance]

5:1 with 4 people in the pot and death staring you down at the end of the road. I don't know if J8 is good enough here, these spots don't come up much.

If I'm playing, I'm calling and putting t80 in on any pot, I think.

[ChuckyB]

I figured 1400 in already...my last 280 will get another 240...280 to win a 1920 pot. When will I ever get a chance like this to make the money?

[lastchance]

You're probably right. It's just that this spot sucks...

[Sidekick]

I think this one is entirely table dependent. If the table has been even moderately loose I think you have to go ahead and push in and pray. You are getting good odds here. Should you luck out and win you are suddenly in good shape to finish ITM.

If the table has been very tight then I fold this and I am most likely pushing any two next hand from the SB unless something really weird happens like 2 or 3 all-ins ahead of me.

The problem with folding here is that it leaves you with only 280 chips and you will lose another 100 to the SB next hand pretty much guaranteeing that you will be called. Then, even if you win that hand you are still very short stacked.

So... unless this table has been incredibly tight I push this and figure I'm dead no matter which course I take, but if I can get lucky here I'm back in business.

Just my opinion.

[adanthar]

First of all, this isn't an automatic all in, period. If you're gonna play the hand (you probably shouldn't), call it. The reason: if you check on a flop that misses and something weird happens like UTG pushes and gets two calls, you can get out.

Anyway, you're probably somewhere around 10% to win this hand if everyone stays in to showdown. Make of that what you will.

[ChuckyB]

I would think calling would be the worst play I could make. If I call, then fold, I have 80 chips left with the big blind coming. At least this was, it's conceivable that one or both of my cards are live. Plus I can quadruple up. There's no chance I win this tourney without a major lucky score here.

If I fold, I have to double up twice to get to 1000. This situation (with a possible quadruple and no really strong betting in front of me just felt right)

[lastchance]

Tell me, would you rather play with or without the cold-callers?

Doubling or tripling up is greatly preferable to quadrupling up, since it's more likely someone has AA, and your equity is falling like a rock.

[ChuckyB]

Exactly. It's a $6 SNG on Party...so we all suck. I need to get lucky either now or next hand. And now is giving me a big return on the rest of my money.