How much $EV will you give up?

Moonsugar · #1 06-09-2005, 06:31 PM

An argument with adanthar in another thread got me thinking. Instead of hijacking that thread even more than I already have I will start this new one.

Here is the situation:

Typical Party SnG payout, 6 people left, you are UTG with 1000 other stack sizes are: 1400 , 600, 1000, 1800, 2200 (bb). Blinds are 100/200. Blinds will increase to 150/300 in 9 hands. Opponents are about as good as you.

If pushing is -$EV (according to ICM) it could still be a worthwhile move so that you preserve your FE.

Questions: How much -$EV will you accept in a push here to preserve your FE? Can you quantify how much future, uncertain FE is worth? How?

Follow up: If the blinds were going to 150/300 next hand how much more $EV would you be willing to give up in a push here?

golfcchs · #2 06-09-2005, 06:44 PM

Whats FE?

Moonsugar · #3 06-09-2005, 06:48 PM

Fold equity. That is your equity in a pot by having enough chips to make your opponents fold their hands when you go all-in.

Moonsugar · #4 06-09-2005, 11:06 PM

Where are all you "push any 2 UTG" people telling me how to calculate how much my FE is worth?

raptor517 · #5 06-09-2005, 11:10 PM

i dont like doing that. people realize that you can be pushing a LOT of hands there, and will loosen up their calling reqs. if yer gonna push any 2 in a spot like that, do it utg +1 at least, though i sometimes will just eat a blind. 700 DOES still have fe. holla

adanthar · #6 06-10-2005, 12:23 AM

First off, blinds increasing in 9 hands are different than blinds increasing in any other number. But no matter.

Second, if something is -$EV, by definition, you shouldn't do it. The point is that the ICM/eastbay's tool do not work properly in close situations and almost everything that they say is very close or even plain close is actually a push or a call.

This does not mean you should be pushing 32o, because that's not close. QJ is kinda close *according to the ICM* in the other direction and is actually totally automatic.

I suspect what's actually 'close' when you do take all of this into account is a hand like JT.

edit: or, you could put it that way in far less sentences vvv

Bigwig · #7 06-10-2005, 12:25 AM

Your analysis is flawed.

If preserving your fold equity is valuable enough to push in an ICM -$EV situation, then it is not a -$EV decision.

I'll expand if you need me too.

Moonsugar · #8 06-10-2005, 12:52 AM

Can you answer the questions I asked?

I don't think YOU can logically make a case why QJ push should be 'totally automatic'. I believe it is 'totally automatic' because you have been doing it and it is habit. But that doesn't make it correct. I want to know how you know 32 is so bad, QJ is automatic and JT is close. What factors go into your decision?

If the bb was t30 you would not think JT was a close all-in decision here. It is obvious that the reduction in future FE caused by the oncoming blinds is what is driving your decision. How does one know that a certain reduction in stack size is too much to accept? When you offer your opp. less than 4:1? Less than 2:1? For 10 steal opportunities? For 5?

A discussion on these factors would be very helpful.

Moonsugar · #9 06-10-2005, 12:54 AM

No, it isn't. I understand that. That is why I posted this whole thread.

Edit: Oh, I see the problem. Whenever I say -$EV, I guess I should have added (according to ICM) instead of just after the first use of the term. Sorry.

Can you answer my questions?

Bigwig · #10 06-10-2005, 01:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
No, it isn't. I understand that. That is why I posted this whole thread.

Edit: Oh, I see the problem. Whenever I say -$EV, I guess I should have added (according to ICM) instead of just after the first use of the term. Sorry.

Can you answer my questions?

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're asking me about how much $EV I'd 'give up.' The answer is none. At least, not intentionally.