From Empire WSOP freeroll

Moonsugar · #1 06-05-2005, 05:39 PM

This hand came up in today's tourney leaderboard freeroll. ~80 players left. Tourney pays only 1st place. The small stacks at the table are AFK.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter

CO (t210)
Button (t475)
SB (t35)
BB (t390)
Hero (t4820)
UTG+1 (t4310)
MP1 (t80)
MP2 (t2960)
MP3 (t155)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t300, UTG+1 raises to t500, 7 folds, Hero calls t200.

Flop: (t1050) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t800, Hero raises to t1900,UTG+1 raises all-in to t3810, Heros does what???

sandrew · #2 06-05-2005, 05:57 PM

I smell QQ, KK, or AA. I am out. I might have top pair but a raise of all in i'm gone i don't smell a draw. He could have even stayed in with a small pair and hit a set but i don't think thats it. I might have even folded preflop.

hero should fold. Its early in the tournament and there will, hopefully, be better places than KJ to fight. If he is on a draw he is on a nut flush draw if he is holding AK. But i smell over pair.

Moonsugar · #3 06-05-2005, 06:02 PM

What about the odds the pot is laying you?

How does prize structure affect your analysis?

sandrew · #4 06-05-2005, 06:32 PM

Odds don't concern me when i first look at this. Here is my thinking on why i think its a fold, espeically at the all in. He has put you all in for all but approx 500 of your chips. And only one position pays. You are beat by AJ, QQ, KK, AA, as well as 1 of 3 sets, which are unlikely. If he is on a draw he has 9 outs, but he reraised you i think he has a hand.

If only one spot is paid with 80 left. I would want to survive with as many chips left, even if i am going to get 2:1 on my money if he happend to not have made his hand. Getting cripplied this late in the tourney (if only 80 are left in a freeroll the blind struture has to be high) is not my idea fun late in a tournament. Without some kind of redraw, I think its an easy lay down.

Moonsugar · #5 06-05-2005, 07:08 PM

Since there seems to be little interest I will post what happened and my analysis.

1) Likely holding by UTG+1: Like you I put the raiser on an overpair but I also include likely holding of AK hearts to make this play. I am really only concerned with 2 hands: JJ, KK as they have me in bad shape. But, they are less likely given the cards in my hand. Now, there is an outside chance of AQ (hearts) or AJ, AK (not hearts) and even more remote chance of 44 or 55 or some offbeat thing like TT or 99.

2) Prize structure considerations: Since there is only 1 prize the chips all have the same value and that value does not change throughout the tourney. This means that chip ev and $ ev are the same thing.

3) Pot is laying me 4.6:1.

My conclusions: If I have 5 outs I need the pot to lay me 4.9:1 to call. In my estimation here the chances I am up against a set, AJ or KK are outnumbered by the times I am up against AK, heart draw, TT, 99 or a pure bluff. So, I took the odds and called.

I was up against QQ and drew out a K on the river.

The 2 players at the table said I was "horrible" and an "idiot". It looks to me to be only marginally good or marginally bad, not a great or really bad play. I don't see anything wrong with my analysis. Maybe someone can correct my thinking?