Most profitable type of gambling. - Page 3

RiverTheNuts · #21 08-19-2004, 06:41 AM

But you'd have to be getting over 1:1 odds on your bets on both sides to make it +EV...

How often is a sportsbet gonna be that skewed at two different places??? Can you maybe give a specific example?? Im curious to learn.

craig r · #22 08-19-2004, 08:31 AM

I will give you a few examples:

1) The other day at one sportsbook you could take Greece (vs. the US) for +13 (+105) and the US -9.5 (+105). This is a risk free middle (as long as you trust the sportsbook). You will make money on this play no matter what. and will make a lot of money if the US wins by 10-12 points.

2) In NFL if you can get a -2.5 on the favorite and a +3.5 on the dog, this is a profitable situation. Even if you are laying -110.

3) In baseball you might be able to find a favorite at -110 at one book and at another be able to find the dog in this same game at +115, or higher, but either way, you are guaranteed a push or to make money.

craig

playerfl · #23 08-19-2004, 10:11 AM

how big would you have to bet to make this worthwhile including transaction costs, and how often do situations like this occur ? Also how would you find situations like this ?

Al Mirpuri · #24 08-19-2004, 10:39 AM

Proposition bets of whatever kind are probably the most lucrative form of gambling. I have reconsidered and no longer advocate any previous opinion expressed in this thread.

craig r · #25 08-19-2004, 12:50 PM

Also how would you find situations like this ?

You have to have quite a few different sportsbooks (maybe even a local) to bet at in order to find these types of bets. You basically just have to keep looking at the different books throughout the whole day (this is how i do it at least).

how big would you have to bet to make this worthwhile including transaction costs

i deposit all of my funds using neteller. and to deposit to neteller from checking is free (as well as withdrawing). all the books that i use do not charge a fee to deposit or withdraw using neteller(they are at least free 2 times a month). Plus, you can get a bonus on a re-load deposit or initial deposit. So, you can basically shop for middles and scalps for free.

how often do situations like this occur ?

the olympics example i gave above is not very common. but, in football you can find numbers on/off the 3 and 7 all the time. same with baseball scalps. the difference on baseball scalps is that you will either push or win (usually a small amount). on football middles you will usually lose the juice or win a nice chunk.

I am not a heavy sportsbettor (moneywise); as i am still learning a lot of the nuances. i enjoy studying it and learning about it, but since i don't have a huge bankroll, i can't bet big. so middles and scalps provide a low risk investment for a nice return. and also, sometimes i will "walk into" a middle or scalp. for example, i will bet a fav. in baseball the night before at -110, and then see the next afternoon that i can get the dog at +120. and since my roll is small i will take the free money (though some would say if i liked the -110, then i should let it ride).

enough rambling. i hope this helps a little.

dogmeat · #26 08-19-2004, 12:52 PM

You are mistaken. The best NL players win 8 of every 10 sessions. If you don't believe this, do a post on the NL forum - and one on the limit forum asking for people's session win percentages. I guarantee you that the best players for limit and nl will be over 70%.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

playerfl · #27 08-19-2004, 02:49 PM

i'm sure if i asked enough players that question i could find some where it was true, but they would be way out on the bell curve, and no way to know if it was luck or not.

crazy canuck · #28 08-20-2004, 01:10 AM

I read most of the responses and I believe nobody mentioned trading/financial speculation. Although the financial markets are more efficient than sports betting markets, you can really make a killing if you know what you're doing (and there is a much lower vig than sportsbettig).

dogmeat · #29 08-20-2004, 12:51 PM

Forget the bell curve. The original post on this thread was in regards to the players that are in the top 3-5% of their profession. For poker players, I would guess that from all players that are long-term winners, the best of those, at least 20% IMHO, win 70+% of their sessions. If you take just the top 3-5%, I am sure over half have winning sessions in that percentage.

I probably can't convince you just by giving my opinion, but I know a good number of long-time professional players (10 years or more) and they fit this 70+% group.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Al Mirpuri · #30 08-20-2004, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are mistaken. The best NL players win 8 of every 10 sessions. If you don't believe this, do a post on the NL forum - and one on the limit forum asking for people's session win percentages. I guarantee you that the best players for limit and nl will be over 70%.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If you asked the players you would discover that they have won more money than has ever been in circulation. Poker players habitually lie about losses and wins.