Flush Draw v. Made Set on Flop/Hold Em

[Cobra]

Hopefully someone else will check out my calculations but I think you can determine the break even pott odds as follows:

We first need to determine the five following probabilities:

A. Flush on Turn and blank on the river-8/45*34/44 = .1374
B. Blank on turn and flush on the river-30/45*7/44 = .1061
c. Lose on the turn - 7/44 = .1556
D. Blank on turn and lose on the river-30/44*37/44 = .5606
E. Flush on turn and lose on the river-8/45*10/44 = .0404

Lets assume the Y = current pot and x = amount you need to bet to call so y/x = is your pot odds.

When you win under A you win (Y+2x)
When you win under B you win (Y+2x)
When you lose under C you lose X
When you lose under D you lose 2X
When you lose under D you lose 2X.

So in order to find the break even y/x you would solve the following equation.

A*(Y+2X)+B*(Y+2X)=CX+2DX+2EX

Simplyfing we get Y/X = (C+2D+2E-2A-2B)/(A+B)

If we substitute our known variables in we get the break even pott odds as:

3.575:1

This is the first time I have done something like this so hopefully someone else will check my work.

Cobra