Question on all streets and most importantly the river.

[A_C_Slater]

Paradise Poker $1/2--- 7 handed

BB-- reads on him as passive play with TPGK on flop check/calling flop and turn failing to protect it in a large field. Yet, I have him raising A3s on button versus 2 limpers. Laggy preflop and passive postflop? No PT stats.

CO---is unknown.

3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, AC raises with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], BB calls, CO calls.

(6 SB)
3 players ---FLOP:6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


AC bets, BB raises, CO calls, AC reraises, BB calls, CO calls.


(7 BB)
3 players--- TURN: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


AC checks, BB bets, CO calls, AC calls.


(10BB)
3 players---RIVER: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


AC checks, BB bets, CO calls, AC......?


Question #1--- reraise the flop?

Question #2--- Bet the turn?

Queston # 3---- Overcall the river? I know, I know, do I feel my hand is good 1 in 12 times here? I have no idea. This is why I ask. Could BB be betting a busted flush draw and CO calling with a Ten/lower kicker once out of 12 times? If he is a typical Call station then most definetley it's possible, but he is unknown....... If no overcall then I call easily, if I have him as a read as a call station then I call instantly. It's the unknown variable of CO that confuses me on the River.

[thesharpie]

He probably doesn't have a flush draw, so would he try this play with a straight draw or something? He would probably just call with top pair from the look of your read. Flop is fine. I probably lead the turn just because he didn't cap the flop and I'd hate it to get checked through.

The way I'd play it would cause the action to be different on the river, but the way you play it I fold the river.

[Aaron W.]

I don't like the flop 3-bet so much. Your equity edge isn't that big, and you don't have strong implied odds because it's only 3-handed. I would have just called the flop raise. You're also OOP, which means that you can only ask them to give you a free card.

There's not much point to betting the turn unless you're pretty sure you can get one or both to fold. And given that they both saw three bets on the flop, this prospect is dubious. Check-call because you have nothing to gain by betting.

Check-fold the river. I doubt your ten is enough to beat the bettor and the overcaller often enough to be profitable. The way things played out, I'm almost certain BB has a pair of jacks or better.

[ QUOTE ]
if I have him as a read as a call station then I call instantly

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a calling station, this should be an instant fold. "Calling" station means that they usual play is to call (ie is passive), so wouldn't be expected to bluff the river.

[BatsShadow]

I think he meant the caller was a call station, not the agressor - meaning that he wouldn't consider his play an overcall.

Of course you are right though, if a call station bets, he has something, probably two pair.

In any case, I think that the river is an easy fold.

[J.DP]

I'd just call the flop raise. Your equity edge isn't that big and BB could cap folding CO. Plus calling sets you up for a sweet turn check/raise.

Check/call the turn. You are behind so you want to see the turn as cheaply as possible. Betting is useless since BB isn't going to fold.

I'd fold the river. Based on your read BB has you beat here very often.

[MrWookie47]

Don't like the 3bet? Three-betting here is +EV even if hero didn't have a pair. With the additional A and T outs, hero has a great draw here, more than enough to 3bet.

Check/call the turn, though, because your draw isn't nearly as strong any more. You'd need a 3rd caller for betting to be +EV here. Check/fold the river. No sense overcalling with third pair.

[Vagrant]

According to SSH pretty much any Ace high flush draw(at least down to AT) makes money for every bet put in on the flop. I usually play by this mentallity and would have no problem 3 betting the flop and would be hoping someone capped. The only way I would be weary of capping the flop would be if the board was paired.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd just call the flop raise. Your equity edge isn't that big and BB could cap folding CO. Plus calling sets you up for a sweet turn check/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your equity edge is bigger than 33.3%, and CO isn't folding when he cold called 2 already.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't like the 3bet? Three-betting here is +EV even if hero didn't have a pair. With the additional A and T outs, hero has a great draw here, more than enough to 3bet.

Check/call the turn, though, because your draw isn't nearly as strong any more. You'd need a 3rd caller for betting to be +EV here. Check/fold the river. No sense overcalling with third pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that I was too conservative in this case. For whatever reason, I didn't have Hero's other 5 outs in mind. 3-betting here is fine.

However, there's a slight fallacy in the idea that a flush draw has 35% equity. While it is true that a flush draw comes in 35% of the time, it is not true that Hero always wins with his flush draw. Hero's equity is actually closer to 30%, depending on the specific conditions (more players = lower equity, paired board = lower equity, non-nut flush = lower equity). These are things that many over-aggressive players often fail to consider. 3-betting with a flush draw alone with two opponents is a very thin value raise (if not slightly -EV).

[aK13]

I like the 3 bet. You've got a decent pair + a nut flush draw. I'd also lead on the turn.