Week 2 NFL pix

NajdorfDefense · #1 09-16-2005, 02:40 PM

Buff +2. 2 units. Everyone high on TB after last week, me as well, but Buff is the better team and I think Losman better than Griese and better weapons and D also.

Jax +9 - this line seems way high to me. Check the past history on these two. 3 units.

Balt -4. 1 unit.

KC -1. KC is my new pick to win the AFC right now. Very high on their D, believe it or not. 2 units.

NE -3. CAR couldn't beat the Aints, figure they will struggle with Miracle Boy Brady. 3 units.

SF +13.5. Small though, very small, if PHL is angry this could be a 40-10 laugher for the Iggles. Basically just want the points in case #5 is hurt worse than he admits. <1 unit. May also take the over as partial hedge here. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Naj [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

#2 09-16-2005, 03:24 PM

I like. I also like that you're playing the Buf/TB game, which isn't getting much discussion this week. I've got Buffalo to win a at pretty good price (+133 on Tradesports), and I agree with your analysis: Griese looked just C+ for Tampa, whereas Losman showed poise. If Buffalo converts just a few of its many red zone opportunities last week, it's a rout. Buffalo's got the potential, and even though they looked good, it's not a whole new Tampa Bay this year.

NoChance · #3 09-16-2005, 03:32 PM

Wow, I was thinking the exact opposite about the Buf/TB game. Tampa Bay may end up being my top play this week. Losman didn't have to do much against a bad Houston team. I think Tampa Bay has some speed a linebacker and can make his first road game a living hell. They did a pretty good job of shutting down Culpepper. They should be able to handle Losman. I think anything less than -3 is a steal for a Tampa Bay bet. I also like that the "public" seems to be on Buffalo.

Good discussion/thoughts here.

mosuavea · #4 09-16-2005, 05:13 PM

Not laying anything on this game but the Bills defense is absolutely nasty and I really dont think Mularkey is going to put Losman in a spot where he has to win the game. The Bucs run D isnt all that great since they are so undersized and I think a healthy dose of Willis more than likely. I dont think JP has 20 attempts. Also, don't underestimate the Bills special teams, number one last year and they scored 5 TDs on returns.

All in all, I think this will be a defensive and field position type of game. I give the edge to the Bills, since they have the better D and Special Teams.

FishNChips · #5 09-16-2005, 06:32 PM

mandatory disclaimers:
1 - NOOB!
2 - no $$$ being laid out while I learn from you guys so I'm just thinking out loud
3 - I'm learning, please don't kill me for anything I say unless its totally inane

a few thoughts:

1 - do you think that BUff will be able to run against the bucs? I have my concerns there after TB shut down MN running game (not a good one but they couldn't load up the box - their front 7 stopped the run). If they put 8 or 9 in the box and dare Loseman to beat them, can he? I like Buff here too, but running will be key.

2 - I like this (Jags +9) as well. I just don't see how it can be this big a line.

3 - i have no idea on this. Didn't see or read anythign about the KC game.

4 - how does McNabb injury affect this? I think it makes your 49ers +points much better. Lots of Westbrook, lots of clock eating, not a huge worry about running up big points. I like your idea on the hedge here too.

thanks for sharing your picks with the thought process.
FishNChips

CCx · #6 09-16-2005, 07:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
NE -3. CAR couldn't beat the Aints, figure they will struggle with Miracle Boy Brady. 3 units.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to mention Belichick will be all over exploiting the loss of Jenkins. I like the pick.

FishNChips · #7 09-16-2005, 07:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
NE -3. CAR couldn't beat the Aints, figure they will struggle with Miracle Boy Brady. 3 units.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to mention Belichick will be all over exploiting the loss of Jenkins. I like the pick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mandatory Disclaimer : Total NOOB and no $$$ on line while I learn from you guys .. just thinking out loud to try and learn faster. Thnx

Does anyone have info on how the Pats do in the Bellicheck era with a long week to prepare? I'm sure they've played in a few Saturday / Thursday games so there should be some stats (not enough to matter?). What about how they do after a bye week? Would that have any bearing here? i agree with CCx that that coaching staff will find holes and they'll have extra time to do it.

Thanks,
FishNChips

NajdorfDefense · #8 09-17-2005, 11:14 AM

McGahee - 12 starts, 9 100 yd games, buff 9-3, no coincidence.

I don't see TB stopping him or holding him under 100 yds, considering he averaged 4.0ypc against top 5 rush D's last year, and that was only a year removed from triple ACL surgery. This guy is a beast. Also, Houston's D is better than you think.

I think Buffalo should be a small fave, public enamored with TB shutdown of punchless Minny where Daunte played his worst game ever. Ever.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Naj

ftball0000 · #9 09-17-2005, 12:04 PM

This post caught my interest. I won't make a pick in this game b/c I have some bias, but here are some facts about the Bills.

Their defense against Carr last week was very vanilla, they are usually a very complicated and agressive defense. They rushed 4 for most of the game, and only on 3rd down did they bring more pressure, and it absolutely destroyed Houston.

Everyone is healthy on Buff's def and Troy Vincent has shown great range at free safety, and the DE Kelsey has really improved from last year. This year's D is better than last year's.

About their offense, like previous posters have said, they will give the ball to McGahee over and over again. However, when Houston went w/ 8 or 9 in the box, they just spread everyone out and threw the ball and Losman looked sharp. He made 1 bad pass the whole game and is very cautious w/ the ball. The O itself will not score more than 17pts. However the def and special teams could get one themselves or setup an easy one. Brian Moorman the punter, has the strongest leg in the league, and in the good weather could unleash one of his patented 65-70 yrd punts.

The main concern about the Bills I have is that they were way to conserative in the red zone, they played for FG's and Lindell is a HORRIBLE kicker, longer than 40yrds he sucks.

Hope this helps your bets, I'm staying away from it, but according to sportsinsights.com the public is 59% on TB

mosuavea · #10 09-17-2005, 12:43 PM

Good to see another Bills fan in here! I agree with everything you said and I am also staying away because I never bet the Bills game, although last week I was very tempted to throw down a couple units on them.

Whille I agree the play calling in the red zone was bad, they were hurt a few times on key penalties that either backed them out of the red zone, or put them in 1-20, 2-15 holes. Also, I think Lindell gets a real bad rap he made 86% of his kicks last year and his kicks looked great last week, striped down the middle with enough leg to hit from 50+. Maybe when the coaching staff and Lindell say the long snapper will make a difference they weren't kidding. I would like to see him be more consistent from 40+ though, and in order for the Bills to play the style of game they want to, he will have to be for them to succeed.