|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
If my hand is good enough to call this river, is it good enough to push.
Villain is 73/10/1.23 and 24 wtsd after 50 hands. He appears very loose and quite aggresive. His range includes any sort of flush or maybe air? Probably a flush. Fold? Call? Push? Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Hero ($65.85) Button ($45) SB ($60.40) BB ($79.40) UTG ($45) MP ($169.03) Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25. UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks. Flop: ($2.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $2.50. Turn: ($7.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> MP checks, Hero checks. River: ($7.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $30</font>, Hero ?? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
I'm pushing here. Your river bet looks like a weak steal attempt. If he has an overflush, then he takes my stack. The straight also hit so it's hard to put him on the nuts here.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
i push. i think that someone who raises that much raises Axs most times, and i can just see so many smaller flushes playing this way along w/ whatever else a donk might have here and still call...
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
[ QUOTE ]
i push. [/ QUOTE ] Now that all the sensible TAG's are in MSNL, we are left with all the high variance maniac's down here in SSNL. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I still think a call is correct here. Pot is a boring $7.25 when the river card is dealt. I hit my hand and get $30 more out of villian, I am happy with that. I don't have the nuts, I don't have the second nuts. There's a nice chance Hero loses this hand. No sense in shelling out an extra $30 when you don't have too. Let me ask all the maniac pushers this question: If, instead of c/r'ing, Villian led into Hero for $30 on the river, how many of you would advocate pushing then? Most of you would probably be folding in that spot. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
push and hope he doesn't show a better hand. I expect to win ~ 4/5 of the time. He could show a str8, some weird 2 pr, set, or baby flush.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
That's a tough spot, because to villian it doesn't look like you have a flush. After all, who bet's that flop with a flush draw? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] (nice play there btw) I'm not pushing this. I error on the side of caution. If he can c/r a better flush on the river, he can have $30 from me there; but, I don't see any reason to give him another free $30 on top of that.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
It might help to know how he got his stack that high. Stealing a lot or showing down good hands.
A lot of aggressive players make huge stacks bluffing or who are willing to put all their money in with a low flush and are up against people who will call them with 2 pair, a straight, etc. Is he bluffing at every scare card? Also... regarding the overbet he's making; is this standard for him? Presumeably he's done this before and there's been some showdowns... how strong was his hand? I'm certainly not folding my hand to a guy that loose. The question is do I reraise. And to answer that, I want to know the answers to my questions above. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
If he's got nothing or two pair or something less than a straight, will he call your push on the river? Tough spot if you don't know where you stand (and if you're beat and you push; you're set to lose a lot of money)
|
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
I'm inclined to push because of his stats
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: q10s, river flush meets giant c/r
"If he's got nothing or two pair or something less than a straight, will he call your push on the river?"
I suspect I could answer that question if I'd been sitting at the table for awhile. I'm willing to bet if he's willing to make this overbet with something like a straight or a really weak flush, he's not going to fold to the allin (which would be nothing more, at this point, then a minraise) Do you think the villain is going to raise it $30 then fold for $30 more? |
|
|