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#21
10-10-2005, 02:53 PM
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Re: Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?
The flop will contain an A or K 30% of the time. The flop will contain two of your suit 10.9% of the time, which is not as good as the odds of flopping a set. Most of the time your AKs will be worthless.
If you don't think you're on a draw maybe you should consider the possiblilties of your unimproved hand winning a pot. 
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#22
10-10-2005, 03:35 PM
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Re: Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?
[ QUOTE ]
Raising from the blinds with a drawing hand is not a good idea. [/ QUOTE ] Raising PF with AK is not a good idea? Common!
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#23
10-10-2005, 03:43 PM
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Re: Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?
Sounds like MP plays pretty straightforward. In that case, with these stacks, I would bet 2/3 pot on flop and fold if he raises. Sounds like he would never bluff in this situation against someone who is tight and raised big out of the blinds. I like your preflop raise, by the way. I might even make it bigger. Bomb the heck out of that baby with that many limpers.
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#24
10-10-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?
[ QUOTE ]
The flop will contain an A or K 30% of the time. The flop will contain two of your suit 10.9% of the time, which is not as good as the odds of flopping a set. Most of the time your AKs will be worthless. [/ QUOTE ] Of course it's a drawing hand that's going to miss the flop most of the time, but what hand isn't a drawing hand by that logic? Pocket pairs? Well, if you have pocket 10s for example, there's only about a 30% chance that the flop will contain no overcards. Which would you rather have, AK which flops TPTK 30% of the time or TT which flops an overpair 30% but still has to worry about overcards on the turn and river? Are you suggesting you would only raise with a premium pair (JJ/QQ/KK/AA) from the blinds when everyone has limped? Even if I agreed with that strategy it would be due to a desire to play extremely tight from the blinds, not because of some arbitrary distinction of what is a "drawing hand". If you don't raise preflop, you don't give your opponents a chance to make a mistake. You don't give hands that you are an underdog to (small/medium pairs) a chance to fold and you don't give hands that you are a big favorite over (anything except a pair) a chance to put extra money in the pot. And who says you need to improve on the flop to win the pot? Well, I guess if you limp and let 7 other people see the flop with you that's probably true. But if you raise to limit the field to 1 or 2 opponents, you can frequently take down the pot with a continuation bet on the flop, even if your opponents managed to catch a middle pair. [ QUOTE ] If you don't think you're on a draw maybe you should consider the possiblilties of your unimproved hand winning a pot. [/ QUOTE ] How many starting hands are there that you would be confident of winning a pot at showdown unimproved? Almost any hand needs to improve to win against a large field. Thankfully, we have the ability to win pots without getting to a showdown, letting a good aggressive player win a lot of pots that they wouldn't have if they just sat back and hoped for the cards to hit them. And by limiting the field with a preflop raise, the odds of winning at showdown, even unimproved, go up dramatically.
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#25
10-10-2005, 04:47 PM
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Re: Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?
Thanks for all the replies! I really had a hard time getting this hand off my mind but it sure feels better after some discussions. I need to post more hands! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Thanks also for defending my horrible strategy to raise big with a drawing hand from the blinds... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#26
10-10-2005, 04:53 PM
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Re: Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?
It's not a 'drawing hand'. To be, a 'drawing hand' is a good implied odds hand. AK is not one. I would raise big from the blinds here with many hands. The pot is big. I want it. One of those hands is AK.
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#28
10-10-2005, 06:51 PM
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Re: Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?
[ QUOTE ]
I do trust my read on him, I'm just unsure to whether "almost sure" means "sure more than 75% of the time" [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Being right 75% of the time isn't important. There is a drastic difference in equity between your read being right and your read being wrong. In order for a call to be correct: 1. Your read needs to be wrong way over half the time (I haven't done the maths, but intuitively I think it will be in that ballpark). 2. When your read is wrong, it has to be WAY wrong (bearing in mind if you knew he only made this play with AK/AA/KK/88/44 you would be correct to fold).
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#30
10-10-2005, 07:10 PM
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Re: Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?
[ QUOTE ]
Most of the time your AKs will be worthless. If you don't think you're on a draw maybe you should consider the possiblilties of your unimproved hand winning a pot. [/ QUOTE ] You, sir, are a moran.
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