3bet fold to a cap?

[imported_stealthcow]

villian (on btn) is a 20/17 over ~ 400 hands. he's almsot definetly a 2p2er. 2 thigns i've noticed.

one hand earlier he has KJs. another very likely 2p2er opens in mp, he 3bets on btn. flop ATx, mp check raises, btn calls, turn J mp bets, co raises and and takes a free showdown.

i had one hand with him. he opens in mp i 3bet on co/btn with AA he calls. flop KJx he checks i bet he calls. turn x he checks i bet he calls river x he bets i raise he folds.

so onto the hand:


arty Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP folds.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero....

stealthcow-

[numeri]

Hmm... usually 2p2ers are more aggressive with flush draws and overcards, right? This definitely looks like KQ or AQ from villain - which will call, but not cap. I can't say I've ever tried this play, but it sounds reasonable. I'm interested to read what others say.

[EvanJC]

i think calling is better than not getting to showdown

[Redd]

I think the only problem might be that he won't pay off with a big Q, and in fact is planning to raise-fold himself. You would expect him to call KQ here?

[jba]

I'm not sure how often he's going to pay off with one pair hands here. his range does seem pretty narrow, but there are 16 combos of AQ/KQ out, AT/AK diamonds, is KT possible? could be I can't decide.. It seems like you would have heard more from nut flush draws. He only needs to pay off a low % of the time with Qx to make this good.

[milesdyson]

QT is definitely part of his range as well. he shouldn't call a 3-bet but he probably would.

Q9 could also be part of his range, and he'd definitely call.

[PokerSparky]

As a standard line against normal opponents, a three-bet here would be spew IMO. Against this opponent, there may be some value in a three-bet. I probably just call though.

[Redd]

I think if AQ is possible, then KT is possible; for both of these the turn call seems a little loose for a TAG, although he could put Hero on a draw given the nature of the board.

Why do you say he needs to pay off with a Q a low % of the time? If we ballpark that we're ahead 60% the time here (this is a rough estimate, do you think it's close?), EV of the extra bet going in =40*(-1)+60*x*1, where x is his payoff frequency. This gives us x=67% of the time he'd need to payoff.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
QT is definitely part of his range as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
do you like a river raise from that hand?? not sure how I feel about it.

[ QUOTE ]
Q9 could also be part of his range, and he'd definitely call.

[/ QUOTE ]

word

[Benman]

3bet call a cap. he could easily have AQ or KQ.