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#31
12-21-2005, 03:13 PM
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Re: River folds are cool atm.
[ QUOTE ]
hey ben - 15% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you lose [/ QUOTE ] In other words, I'll lose 100% of the time my opponent three bets? Well sure, I just don't think that situation exists at greater than 8 to 1. If I think I'm a favorite when called, how often am I a 100% dog when raised? Can you give an example? Not OP's, right? 
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#32
12-21-2005, 03:21 PM
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Re: River folds are cool atm.
ok dude it's completely irrelevant to the point I'm trying to make, but fine here's another example
53% of the time your opponent will call and you win 30% of the time your opponent will call and you lose 15% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you lose 2% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you win this is only a value raise if you can fold to a 3bet.
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#33
12-21-2005, 03:25 PM
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Re: River folds are cool atm.
haven't run anything with those numbers, but the concept jba is talking about is something that everyone should understand.
ben, having a set rule that you always call at 8-1 is obviously not optimal strategy.
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#34
12-21-2005, 03:42 PM
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Re: River folds are cool atm.
[ QUOTE ]
15% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you lose 2% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you win [/ QUOTE ] Um, no. Remember my rule only kicks in at 8 to 1 or better. So, 15 to 2 is 7.5 to 1. Therefore, not only do I not have to be prepared to fold, a fold would be a mistake.
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#35
12-21-2005, 03:47 PM
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Re: River folds are cool atm.
The postulate is that we are a value betting favorite when merely called. This means our hand has some value. Then we get faced with calling one additional bet. We certainly went from a small favorite to a big dog. But how often is it such a big dog that we don't win 11% "by mistake?" Even so, how would you approach someone like me? You'd value re-raise more against me (to the extent that comes up often) but would have to cut down your bluffs against me, no?
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#37
12-21-2005, 03:53 PM
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Re: River folds are cool atm.
Why do you say that? I thought we were having an interesting argument. You really did fail to put any pot odds in your example, and the rule I quoted only kicks in at 8 to 1. So, if I was getting better than 8 to 1, I'd have to always call in your example.
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#38
12-21-2005, 03:57 PM
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Re: River folds are cool atm.
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you say that? I thought we were having an interesting argument. You really did fail to put any pot odds in your example, and the rule I quoted only kicks in at 8 to 1. So, if I was getting better than 8 to 1, I'd have to always call in your example. [/ QUOTE ] maybe I'm wrong, you just seem to keep throwing the conversation off onto bizzare tangents. i didn't list the pot odds because they are irrelevant. we are talking about whether or not a bet is for value. in the example I listed you get value from betting only if you fold when he 3bets. It is to prove my point that there are many situations that you can only value bet/raise if you are able to fold to a raise.
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