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  #51  
Old 12-21-2005, 01:28 AM
sublime sublime is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

Or if you compare it with the Giles signing.

lol

wait

Or if you compare it with the Giles signing.

yeah, lol
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  #52  
Old 12-21-2005, 01:32 AM
Rubeskies Rubeskies is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

Sublime: I agree with your statistical analysis about the Damon deal and such, but I would also factor in this.

Damon is a proven veteren, one who has handled the big stage brilliantly, has lots of postseason experience and he can most likely handle the pressure of New York. He will be good in the clubhouse and he was one of the emotional leaders of the Boston Red Sox over the last few years. They will miss at least that much from him on a team that is losing veterans and gaining youth. These are some of the positives that Damon brings over an unproven player or one with no postseason experience (a la Reed).

That said, I don't think it is a great deal, but it is better than you are making it out to be IMO.
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  #53  
Old 12-21-2005, 01:39 AM
sublime sublime is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

oh, i have no doubt they are getting a quality player for the next couple of years who will contribute at a high level.

i usually approach each deal from the finacial end first. i like how money and markets work i guess [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #54  
Old 12-21-2005, 01:40 AM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

UCF,

The best way to predict Johnny Damon's stats going forward is not to look only at his road splits, but to adjust his overall numbers for Fenway and go from there.
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  #55  
Old 12-21-2005, 01:53 AM
rwperu34 rwperu34 is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

[ QUOTE ]
You project him at 33.8 BRAR in 2006 at the age of 32. Let's say 31 BRAR in 2007 at 33. At age 34 project 27 and at age 35 project 23.

bernie williams

32 52 brar
33 59
34 23
35 26

so damon loses 12% of his offense from 33 -34, and williams loses over 50%.........right...................



[/ QUOTE ]

Nice to pick one player and compare Damon to him. I choose Tim Raines. He would have been projected at 35.8 going into age 32 and produced 33.5 from 32-35.

I've got a better idea. Let's figure a normal decline. There is a chance that Damon is still producing at his current level at the age of 35. There is a chance he'll be out of baseball. When I say 23 BRAR at age 35, I'm assuming a slow decline. The problem is, there is rarely a slow decline. So 23 would have to be an average of all of the possible outcomes. If you want to provide some stats on the EV of a players decline, I will listen.

[ QUOTE ]
Furcal cashes in at 2.24 expected BRAR per million, However, he plays a premium position and apprently very well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, Furcal is a better signing. But to defend the Furcal signing you can't say the Damon signing is:

[ QUOTE ]
awful. period.

[/ QUOTE ]


or

[ QUOTE ]
by year 3 this deal will be horrific not just bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

or

[ QUOTE ]
"3rd grade math would tell you the 'deal' is horrible"

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
giles:

61.6 expected BRAR @ 10m = 6 runs per million which is a GREAT DEAL, even if you factor in his age.

the fact that you even brought his name into this discussion puzzles me. his deal is the polar opposite of damons.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's about decline. Of course if Giles continues to produce at his current level, this is a great deal for the Pads. I just don't understand how Damon can be expected to decline significantly when he will be 35 at the end of his contract yet Giles will continue to produce when he will be 35 at the begining. In my mind, Giles is a bigger risk at the end of the contract, but a better value at the begining. When you weigh everything together, you can't say the Giles signing is THAT much better. Unless of course you are in "win now" mode and discount greatly the crapiness at the end of the contract [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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  #56  
Old 12-21-2005, 01:56 AM
craig r craig r is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

Does anybody think that now that Damon is gone Manny has a better chance of staying? worse? no bearing at all?

craig
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  #57  
Old 12-21-2005, 02:06 AM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

Um, no, the Giles signing is approzimately 300 million times better than Damon's.
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  #58  
Old 12-21-2005, 02:06 AM
UCF THAYER UCF THAYER is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

[ QUOTE ]
UCF,

The best way to predict Johnny Damon's stats going forward is not to look only at his road splits, but to adjust his overall numbers for Fenway and go from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is true, but it is alot better way to predict future hitting than to rely heavily on stats from Fenway Park.
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  #59  
Old 12-21-2005, 02:07 AM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

Did you just agree and disagree with me in the same sentence?
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  #60  
Old 12-21-2005, 02:15 AM
UCF THAYER UCF THAYER is offline
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Default Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees

Yea, i guess so, maybe i didn't totally understand what you meant,
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