Who bats 9th?

[Jack of Arcades]

in your 400/450 vs 350/585 example, the two hitters are almost equal with the altter being *slightly* better. Depending on a) your other hitters, b)the handedness of the batters, c) speed, etc, you might put either one in front of the other without it costing you much at all.

PS: Cookie Monster's big, but even he can score from 2nd on a single. Putting someone like Bill Mueller in front of him is idiotic. Mueller has no business getting 20 more PA than Ortiz.

[tdarko]

jack,

i agree with what you have said (to a degree) since my post, but i don't think that a lineup is going to ever be concrete.

for instance some teams will hide their worst hitter (a defensive guy) in the 8th spot to try and open up big innings in different ways. having two speed guys go 9-1-2 to start an inning is a very dangerous thing and very scary to pitchers, a lot of big innings start this way. for instance, if the 9 and 1 hole scrap their way on now a traditional 2 hole who typically is known for handling a bat very well has many options...with speed on the bases he can hit & run, run & hit--this opens up the field and produces a lot of holes...if he is left handed (a lot of 2 hole hitters are) this gives him a chance to hit behind the runner to move them over--now that gap between 1st and 2nd has expanded greatly b/c of the speed on the bases (having to hold them on).

i am just saying that lineups have been effective in many ways and you can't just say put your worst hitter last. sometimes you need to be creative with what you have.

as for david ortiz and him being in the 2 hole, there is a good reason for that. first off i have him in the 3 hole instead of the 4 hole so that he does get more at bats and actually sacrifice a few RBI's which is the very reason he is in the 3 hole and not batting in the 2 hole. at the end of the season his RBI total is way more valuable than his at bat total and you simply will not get the RBI's batting second or barry bonds, a-rod, manny and every great power guy in the league would be batting leadoff instead of even second. mueller's couple extra ab's mean virtually nothing but ortiz's tons of extra chances with mean in scoring position not only mean a ton to his stats but the team as well.

[Jack of Arcades]

tdarko,

re: ortiz, you're not trying to maximize his rbi total, but to maximize your teams run total. While Ortiz might lose some RBI, they'd surely be picked up by Manny. Plus, you more quickly get to your heavy hitters so that you have Ortiz coming up with 0 out a lot more often. this will maximize your big innings. I'm sure you'd be sweating if you saw a formidable 3/4/5 come up - why let the pitcher settle down and get a relatively easy out at #2? I mean, if you've got Rickey and Raines you'd go 1/2, and maybe even Damon/Youks, but batting a weak hitter at #2 is the cardinal sin of lineup construction.

As for the #9 hole, it's a good thing there are a lot of crappy hitters that are fast. that way you can put them in the 9 hole... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[tdarko]

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As for the #9 hole, it's a good thing there are a lot of crappy hitters that are fast. that way you can put them in the 9 hole... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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haha, very true.

yeah manny definately picks up the slack and of course with a team like the yankees or the red sox you can get creative with the lineup and nothing is really traditional anymore, this is partly why i said lineups are never concrete.

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why let the pitcher settle down and get a relatively easy out at #2?

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i completely agree with this, always put pressure on the pitcher...this is a good point. i will say this from a majority of pitchers standpoints though, that they would rather have 1 home run hit off of them than many doubles. i say this b/c (brief stop in the conversation to say that i am just throwing this out here, i wouldn't actually do this with the red sox lineup, its too good) sometimes a pitcher will give up a bloop and a blast and then the slate is wiped clean and then they cruise...but when they give up a ball down the line, and then two in the gap, and then thats when a guy like ortiz or manny make their paycheck. the 2 hole guy is the guy that puts that ball in the gap and keeps the bases filled--constantly putting pressure on the pitcher like you said. obviously pitching to ortiz is putting pressure on the pitcher, i am not saying it isn't [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

a guy i know said the toughest team he had to throw to was the oakland athletics during his day. this was that late 80's A's team, the bash brothers team with jose, mac, rickey, dave parker, dave henderson and carney lansford. he said the reason they were so tough to pitch against was the reason you mentioned...you never got a break and carney lansford in the 2 spot was a big reason. rickey was a pest with power, then carney would come up and he could do so many different things with the bat and never struckout (made you throw a ton of pitches, as did rickey) so all of this happened before you even got to jose, mac, henderson or parker. i think you can apply pressure without ortiz is my point.

[rwperu34]

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in your 400/450 vs 350/585 example, the two hitters are almost equal with the altter being *slightly* better.

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Fine. You don't want a 400/400 hitting right after a 375/610.

[rwperu34]

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ortiz, you're not trying to maximize his rbi total, but to maximize your teams run total. While Ortiz might lose some RBI, they'd surely be picked up by Manny.

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Sure, but Manny would have just as many RBI if you bat him fourth and Ortiz third.

You are trying to maximize your teams runs by putting your players in a position where they can maximize thier production. Batting Ortiz second is not doing that. Ortiz is an RBI guy and should be put in as many RBI situations as possible. Same with Manny.

Nobody is saying to bat a weak hitter #2. What you want there is the best combination of average, speed, and on base ability. In the case of the '05 Red Sox, this would have been Bill Mueller, probably the teams fourth best hitter. The Red Sox were expecting Renteria to put up similar numbers to what Mueller actually put up, only with more speed. That's why he hit second most of the season.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Sure, but Manny would have just as many RBI if you bat him fourth and Ortiz third.

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Except the #4 hitter often bats with no one out because of 1-2-3 innings in the first, and he also gets 20 more PA which translates into more RBI opportunities.

[Jack of Arcades]

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in your 400/450 vs 350/585 example, the two hitters are almost equal with the altter being *slightly* better.

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Fine. You don't want a 400/400 hitting right after a 375/610.

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Of course not. Your 400/400 should be batting leadoff!

[DougOzzzz]

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It's retarded. Bat your worst player 9th.

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you don't always bat your worst hitter 9th, saying this is naive. it depends on the makeup of your lineup and what you have as far as power and speed. the OP has a point and it is very effective if the team has the correct perssonnel to do so though that its not always the case as well.

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Obviously if you want to alternate L/R better or something, you might move him up a spot, but having a second "table-setter" is not an optimal strategy. Lineup construction has more or less been solved. "Optimal Lineups" are essentially:

#1. Traditional Leadoff Hitter is usually oka here, you want to stick your best hitter that doesn't hti a ton of homers. You can sacrifice some OBP for speed.
2-9 order your best hitters by 1.8OBP+SLG

Doesn't do much, of course. Maybe 15 runs over a season. Still, that's about $2 million...

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I'd wager ordering players by a more OBP-heavy version of OPS (maybe 3*OBP+SLG) would have a stronger correlation with run production.

[Jack of Arcades]

Doug,

I would think so too, but that's not the case per MGL... and really, we all know MGL is Jesus.