KQ vs twink

[winky51]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em
Converted w/ PonksSaver: http://www.pokermentor.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=510
- - - HAND 3276135566 - - -
PreFlop: <font color="blue">HERO</font> is BB with <font color="green">K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]</font> <font color="blue">Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]</font> (5 Players)
1 <font color="darkred">fold</font>, CO calls, 1 <font color="darkred">fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="blue">HERO</font> <font color="darkgreen">raises</font>, CO calls, SB <font color="darkgreen">raises</font>, <font color="blue">HERO</font> calls, CO calls,

Flop: (9.00 SB) <font color="red">J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]</font> <font color="black">Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]</font> <font color="green">2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]</font> (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="blue">HERO</font> <font color="green">bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls,

Turn: (6.00 BB) <font color="green">Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]</font> (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="blue">HERO</font> <font color="green">bets</font>, CO calls, SB <font color="darkred">folds</font>,

River: (8.00 BB) <font color="green">3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]</font> (2 Players)
<font color="blue">HERO</font> <font color="green">bets</font>, CO <font color="darkgreen">raises</font>, <font color="blue">HERO</font> <font color="blue">????</font>

CO is uberfish calling the flop on "just to see one more card, I might get a draw".

Could I 3 bet? or is this a plain old call.

[cdxx]

this may not be mathematically correct, and i'll probably get slammed for this by the forum, but if this is your read, and it's solid, i am not sure i bet the river, i may check/call it at least half the time.

my philosophy is that even if i miss a bet on the river, the pf/flop/turn play alone will bankrupt the uberfish. there's always the next hand, and they are not going anywhere if they win this one. probably not even if they lose it.

edit: oh yeah, at 11-1 this is an easy call. a cap would be scary, so between 11-1 odds of the call vs. 13-3 odds of the cap or even 12-2 in case he just calls the 3-bet, i choose 11-1.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
and i'll probably get slammed for this by the forum, but if this is your read, and it's solid, i am not sure i bet the river, i may check/call it at least half the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
his read is that the guy is a fish. you deserve to get slammed for suggesting not value betting three of a kind against a fish.

[cdxx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and i'll probably get slammed for this by the forum, but if this is your read, and it's solid, i am not sure i bet the river, i may check/call it at least half the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
his read is that the guy is a fish. you deserve to get slammed for suggesting not value betting three of a kind against a fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

the read is that the guy is chasing a flush more often than not. would you do the same thing if the flop had 2 clubs?

edit: i am wrong about check-calling the river. but i still don't 3-bet.

[milesdyson]

uh yeah i'd bet if the flop had two clubs and the river brought the third, are you serious?

where did you get that he has a flush draw? because he likes to call on the flop to see if he picks up a draw on the turn? well see, i saw through that because i know OP only put that up because in this specific hand, the guy caught a flush draw on the turn and completed it on the river. his "read" was just another way of posting the results, and i ignored the results.

[Dopey]

[ QUOTE ]
this may not be mathematically correct, and i'll probably get slammed for this by the forum, but if this is your read, and it's solid,i am not sure i bet the river, i may check/call it at least half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Just wow [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I hope by saying you check/call at least half the time means you bet the other half the time. But suggesting you wouldn't value-bet the river makes me wonder if the other half of the time your check/folding the river [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[cdxx]

[ QUOTE ]
uh yeah i'd bet if the flop had two clubs and the river brought the third, are you serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am slammed. i asked for it. i was wrong. i see the error of my ways. blah-blah-blah.

of course i don't check/fold against a fish, and i do lead the river. but if the flop has two clubs and a third comes i don't 3-bet.

[mongoose51]

Must value bet the river against a fish, just call his raise.