discuss

[mike l.]

i posted privately to a friend but i might as well put it out here.

what online is teaching us, where seemingly good winning players can "run bad" for 100k hands, and not know anything with confidence until they reach a million hands, is that the long term is so very long term in limit hold em because luck is a much bigger factor than previously thought (or than "experts" have let on or even realised).

in fact, once you get beyond some very simple concepts like degrees of tightness and the logic of basic postflop play, the game is primarly luck. how you play 55 on the button after two limpers, what you do w/ KQ utg (or KJ for that matter), and so on and so forth are meaningless. all that matters is how you ran that night for a couple hours and whether youre smart enough to go spend your winnings on something worthwhile or chump enough to squander it away through another period of "running bad".

im calling bullsh*t on the whole thing. the only people ever sure to make money are the ones collecting the rake. and ive won every year ive played, more and more each year, for the past 5 years. and that's meaningless.