PP 100-200 QQ hand.

[Turning Stone Pro]

PP 1-2 game. I have been playing well and my image is tight and aggressive (imagine that!). Solid player who I don't have crib notes on raises UTG+1. I three bet with QQ from MP. Fold around, he caps, I call.

Flop is AA4. He bets, I call.
Turn is a 5 (no flush concerns). He bets, I call.
River is a 7. He checks.

1) What should I do on the river?
2) How do you like the rest of the hand?

Thanks!

TSP

[STG]

Definately bet.
I would've rasied after the flop.

[Nightwish]

This is tricky. His river check almost always means that he doesn't have an A, so the key question here is whether he'd cap with JJ and smaller pairs preflop. I doubt he'd cap with TT or less, so it all comes down to whether he has KK or JJ. It seems like a tossup, except that

(a) JJ is more likely to check the river than KK
(b) if he has QQ, your bet has a very slight chance of getting him to fold

So I say it's a value bet, but not by a whole lot.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
I would've rasied after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? This is terrible advice. Do you want him to fold a smaller pair? Do you think he's going to fold KK or an A?

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
This is tricky. His river check almost always means that he doesn't have an A, so the key question here is whether he'd cap with JJ and smaller pairs preflop. I doubt he'd cap with TT or less, so it all comes down to whether he has KK or JJ. It seems like a tossup, except that

(a) JJ is more likely to check the river than KK
(b) if he has QQ, your bet has a very slight chance of getting him to fold

So I say it's a value bet, but not by a whole lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed.

[DcifrThs]

if this was me vs. you id check AK on the river here some of the time.

-Barron

[STG]

You want to take it down right there. If he reraises you fold.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
(a) JJ is more likely to check the river than KK


[/ QUOTE ]i dont think this can be stressed enough. IMO KK will almost never check the river here. KK will bet almost 100%.
the question is whether valuebetting is worth the possibility you will be CRed by AK. id check AK on the riv in this game almost every single time.
in this hand id bet and fold if i got checkraised. it would be a really sophisticated but wierd play to CR JJ on the riv here.. i dont ever see this.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(a) JJ is more likely to check the river than KK


[/ QUOTE ]i dont think this can be stressed enough. IMO KK will almost never check the river here. KK will bet almost 100%.
the question is whether valuebetting is worth the possibility you will be CRed by AK. id check AK on the riv in this game almost every single time.
in this hand id bet and fold if i got checkraised. it would be a really sophisticated but wierd play to CR JJ on the riv here.. i dont ever see this.

[/ QUOTE ]

you make good points and silly ones.

if you c'r the river here "almost every single time" in a game like this you lose value, become predictable, and give away information.

-Barron

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
You want to take it down right there. If he reraises you fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Two problems with this. First, he typically won't reraise with an A. He'll attempt a check-raise on the turn. And if your response is that you'll now check behind on the turn, my answer to that is that you have just lost at least 1 SB in all those cases when he has a worse hand. Second, as you're raising him on the flop, you better hope that this guy will almost never reraise with JJ/TT. And my guess is that if he has any brains and ever sees you pull that flop raise/fold even once, you can no longer assume that he won't 3-bet you with JJ/TT.