Value bet this river

[mscags]

My notes on villian said he plays bad hands on third street and will complete with weaker hands. Should I value bet this river?

7 Card Stud High-Low ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street - (7.10 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

5th Street - (5.55 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (7.55 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

River - (9.55 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___checks
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks

Total pot: (9.55 BB)

[bigredlemon]

the high hand starting requirements are much higher in stud8 than stud high. If whether betting a big pair is iffy in study high, it's going to be even more so in stud 8, especially if you aren't showing a possible low. I think you save more money in the long run by checking here.

[Bogglor]

I find it very, very difficult to value bet a single pair on the end in 8/b. The reason being is that so many low hands start out as mere low hands and end up making 2 pair along the way and THEY WILL CALL YOU DOWN EVERY TIME (on Party). I don't see any value in betting a single big pair unimproved on the end after someone's been calling down the entire way. You could check and call a bet, and you'll often have to to stop people from betting at you constantly on the river regardless if you check. The real value comes in when you make something like 2 big pair against a low hand who also makes 2 pair. They will pay you off every time in my experience.

[grb137]

Value bets, value raises, and value calls, in my opinion, depend a great deal on your knowledge of the player. I don't make these plays unless I've seen the opponent do the thing I hope to get him to do.

In this case, I wouldnt make this value bet unless I've previously seen him call with 1 pr on the end against possible aces (or he's drunk and has been calling absolutely everything).

[Spladle Master]

Easy value bet. You could've started with three low cards and be trying to push him off his hand. He's not about to let that happen. He's unlikely to raise you with less than trips here, so I definitely like a bet.

I'm curious to know what some of the better players on the stud forum have to say about this hand. I think this situation is interesting and common.

[bigredlemon]

Betting two big pairs on the river has been -EV for me in the last 1000 hands. I hate to see what would happen to my bankroll if I started betting one pair.

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting two big pairs on the river has been -EV for me in the last 1000 hands. I hate to see what would happen to my bankroll if I started betting one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play another million hands and then tell me how you feel.

When I'm playing good I'm pretty sure that every river bet I make is +EV.

[bigredlemon]

I only track my data a few days at a time... they don't make any trackers for stud 8 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
I only track my data a few days at a time... they don't make any trackers for stud 8 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I was only pointing out how small a sample size 1000 hands is. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Also I'm curious to know what assumptions you make that lead you to believe a bet here is -EV.

[bigredlemon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I only track my data a few days at a time... they don't make any trackers for stud 8 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I was only pointing out how small a sample size 1000 hands is. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Also I'm curious to know what assumptions you make that lead you to believe a bet here is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Because if you've done your job right, you're going to be heads up against a low draw. By the time you reach 6th, he'll have 4low with a gut shot straight or some flush draw and or a low pair. If he pairs again for two baby pairs and you bet the river, he will figure you for two big pairs and fold. If he hits his straight/flush/trips, he will raise. He'll only call with two small pair if you are a habitual bluffer or the type of player who would bet with just a bare big pair on the river. Even then, you win 1BB if you are right, lose 2BB if you are wrong, and just feed the rake every other time. I can see it +EV at the very low levels, but I find that very few people will pay me off at 2/4 or above. I can see betting two big pairs if you occasionally bet bare pairs on the river so that they'd have to call to see whether you made your second pair, but then betting a big bare pair is advertising rather than betting for value. Without a specific read, i've become loath to bet two pair on the river. It's probably my biggest leak right now. I've run into 8 boats/straights/flushes in the last 10 showdowns, so I might be biased though. My win rate is 4% for the last two weeks so I'm probably thinking more weak tight than usual, but I think i'll probably stand by this position even when it blows over.