Questionable river payoff

thesharpie · #1 11-29-2005, 04:37 PM

Crypto £1/2, villain is 36/0/2 over 44 hands. Wouldn't he bet a flush draw on the turn, and wouldn't he just call with a better 10? I felt he was either doing some weird slowplay or was FOS. What about the river value bet?

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: (1.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB.

Edit: Both these cats had high wtsd%, which swayed me to not bluffing before I hit, and also to value betting the river.

shadow29 · #2 11-29-2005, 04:42 PM

I just don't think that you're ahead here 25% of the time. The A is scary, the flush is scary, the 9s are scary. Sometimes these dudes slowplay weird hands.

I fold.

2planka · #3 11-29-2005, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't think that you're ahead here 25% of the time. The A is scary, the flush is scary, the 9s are scary. Sometimes these dudes slowplay weird hands.

I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

And the pot is tiny.

yellowjack · #4 11-29-2005, 04:49 PM

4.5 to 1 on the river, we're at best splitting.
To see how often we need our call of the raise to be correct, take this inequality where P is the probability we split.

P*(+2.25BB) + (1-P)*(-1BB) > 0
2.25P + P - 1 > 0
3.25P > 1
P > 0.3077

I don't think we're splitting here >30% of the time. I fold. A bluff-raise by villain is out of the question, so I haven't included that.

aargh57 · #5 11-29-2005, 04:52 PM

I don't know how much you can tell from just 44 hands but I think you're assesment is probably right. Considering how small the pot is I think that you can fold here only getting 4.5 to one. I think the bet on the river is OK. I think that you will get calls from a pair of 3's, small pp or even K high. I'm too aggressive for my own good though sometimes.

goofball · #6 11-29-2005, 05:49 PM

I think I would have checked through the river. What hand does he play this way (check, check, check) that a) you beat, and b) is calling the river?