PP NL$100 6-Max Personal BB/100 challenge.

[pdubz]

I've got 24k hands in PT at these stakes and am missing an estimated 10k hands from before I had PT.

Over this period my BB/100 Hands has gone from
6k: +5.58
8k: +7.84
7k: -2.83
3k: +5.93

Now I know negative downswings are supposed to be a part of variance but I really think my negative 7k swing was just due to bad play. I do recognize though that that +7.84 was a nice upswing. When exams end for me in a week I'm setting myself a goal of maintaining at least +5.5 BB/100 for 20k hands, with a consistency over every 2.5k session.

My preflop statistics have been pretty consistent, but generally getting tighter. I'm really going to focus in on evaluating my hand-by-hand play before I start up again, and hopefully post some thoughts.

I doubt if people care that much, but I figure if I post this up it'll commit myself to this goal instead of wandering off into tournaments, NL$200 or trying to win the Badbeat jackpot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

My current analysis shows three huge leaks:
1.) AJo & AJs and to some extent AQo.
2.) Two pair.
3.) Play on monotone flops.

On all three accounts they are overplayed. The problem with two pair is that I'm getting two pair mostly out of the SB/BB and I end up with both a.) a crappy two pair b.) a crappy two pair in an unraised pot c.) a crappy two pair in an unraised pot out of position.

The good thing is I've since understood the importance of position and the truly vulnerable nature of two-pair that isn't top-two.

And I've noticed an inconsistency with the way I play pair+flush draws. I can't say if I play them badly, but I'm certainly a little confused. For a while I went into check-call mode, and on another I turned it into the holy nuts and raised-all-in almost exclusively. I don't think either is great. I think probably the best line is to take the initiative but not become over aggressive or carried away. Facing big reraises has often meant bigger hands than top pair -- the only hands I really want to tangle with.

Finally there is a noticable statistic gone wrong in my downswing, and that was aggression on the flop. My preflop aggression has been consistently passive (<0.3) but I notice my biggest problem with the downswing statistics is my flop aggression is < 1.0. I suspect an unwillingness to follow up PF raises, giving up hands like AK unimproved without good reason OR a slowplay that costs me pots. My other runs have shown flop aggression levels of over 2.0.

Table selection and player-hunting has been an issue. I've gotten pretty good at recognizing unfavorable tables and moving on, but that is less of a concern than my actual play. Dealing with LAGs, meta-game stuff and the works is interesting but this is a really just a refinement of some ABC's really.

If this doesn't make any amount of sense to you don't worry too much about it. It's all just a bunch of stupid numbers [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

[theredpill]

damn, some analysis you got there. What's wrong with giving up A K unimproved ? Many say that bottom two pair is crap but I disagree. Take a 4 5 verse K 9 on a flop of 4 5 K rainbow and see who wins. 4 5 is a 3 to 1 favorite on the flop. Maybe you mean 45 vs k 9 vs K j ......yeah you might have a problem with 2 others in on the flop and turn with you.

BTW, I think I've played against you a few times. What sites do you play on ? Do you play on Absolute Poker ? I know I've played with some p-dubz.

[Sephus]

the variance at 6max is so high... you should set a goal for your next 50-75k hands.

[pdubz]

I no longer go by pdubz, and I play almost exclusively on Party so we probably haven't crossed pathes theredpill. I tried some other places, but seriously, where else are fish jumping into your nets? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

And by BB I mean the goofy PT of 2x the big blinds. I was looking through some other people's challenges and nearly flipped out when I saw a 12BB session. Then I realized those were big blinds.

I think you sacrifice a lot of value if you fail to lead at the pot with AK if you raised preflop and it's heads-up or three way. It's read dependent, but more often then not my flop bet is taking down the pot. For the first 50 hands I will actually limp or play AK passively so I can get a better feel for how players are going to react. With a 0.30 aggression factor PF you know I'm a TAG. So unless I'm holding AQs, which I am less inclined to follow up the PFR with, what hand holdings am I actually more likely to have when you see me bet preflop and a flop without an A/K? This is what keeps the more observant players wary of going to war with me with anything short of top pair; against fish -- well, the non-AK hands are going to bear fruit for my bankroll in these situations.

The problem with two-pair is not that you are facing just top pair in a real fight. The problem is that any time you are getting contested with your two pair, they are holding something stronger than two pair. Recall that I'm hitting two pair in unraised pots. I have nothing against leading gently and repeatedly with bottom two and having top pair call me down. What I hate is that more likely a set or a big drawing hand reraises me and I feel idiotic. And you are playing out of position. People understand you are a SB/BB and that you could have any two cards. The same goes for flopping open trips with stupid kickers. Without the presence of very high face cards that suggest bad players getting carried away with their top pairs, play these cautiously. You are typically taking down a small pot with your bets or losing big ones if you go to war. I think its all-in-all more +EV to check through and let weaker hands grow more confident and take stabs at the pot. Get more information before you decide on your course of action.