Mason's Bunching Part II

[PairTheBoard]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi pair:

I didn't mention this in the article but you should probably consider the quality of folded hands. For instance, with an earlier position raiser, there are players who would fold a hand like queen-ten suited or unsuited but who would automatically play this in an unraised pot. That makes the odds of flopping a set of treys a little better than your calculation shows, so in my opinion 5-to-1 is a reasonable guess.

best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

If you conclude the remaining 3 nonblind players don't have a 3 because they Fold to the EP raise the odds drop to 5.2-1. Now you're concluding players can't have a 3 if they Call the EP raise And they can't have a 3 if they Fold to the EP raise. I think that's pressing it. And it still doesn't quite get the odds down to 5-1. I doubt the effect you suggest for the Folders is anywhere near that strong.

PairTheBoard

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Pair:

I have no qualms with your analysis.

Best wishes,
Mason