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#11
08-04-2005, 12:00 PM
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Re: Results
I didn't get to this till you posted results but your turn action was fine. You nearly full potted it. They don't have a 2 unless it is specifically 22. The possibility exists of AA hitting his set on the river but I think it's unlikely. I'm calling that river every time...i probably overcall instead of raising so I don't push out one of the villains. I'd estimate you are good waaaaaaaay more than enough times to make this +ev to call.
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#12
08-04-2005, 12:32 PM
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Re: Results
MP2's push makes the pot $120 and it's $30 for you to call. If MP1 folds this gives you ~4:1 odds on your money and if you expect MP1 to call you are now getting ~5:1.
I think that a flopped straight (67s, perhaps) would not slow play to your turn bet given the second club that fell -- especially MP2 who is tight, would probably protect his straight from a flush draw. I think the only hands that beat you here are exactly AA (played like a retard) or 22. I don't think 99/55 slow plays the turn. Given this and the ridiculous pot odds after the river, this has to be a call from hero. Hope I don't get flamed for this... my first real opinion-based post. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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#13
08-04-2005, 12:42 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I folded. Villain 1 called. You can imagine my disgust when Villain 1 shows KK, and Villain 2 shows A5s for 2 pair. I was kicking myself for a long time after this one. If I could do it again, I think I would just jam it all in there on the turn. Live and learn. [/ QUOTE ] I'm a bit of cheater here because I saw your results, but my guy instinct was the same. On such a low board, I would continue to bet all the way. This is the perfect time for a blocker bet on the river. You don't want someone raising you all-in here, so bet out like 1/3 pot instead of checking and KK and A5 will likely only call rather than raise you up. If you get raised in that spot, it's likely time to slow down and fold. Bottom line: You just don't know what they would bet with here if they are aggressive. Can you really fault either of them for acting like they did on the river?
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#14
08-04-2005, 01:35 PM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
MP2's push makes the pot $120 and it's $30 for you to call. If MP1 folds this gives you ~4:1 odds on your money and if you expect MP1 to call you are now getting ~5:1. I think that a flopped straight (67s, perhaps) would not slow play to your turn bet given the second club that fell -- especially MP2 who is tight, would probably protect his straight from a flush draw. I think the only hands that beat you here are exactly AA (played like a retard) or 22. I don't think 99/55 slow plays the turn. Given this and the ridiculous pot odds after the river, this has to be a call from hero. Hope I don't get flamed for this... my first real opinion-based post. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] No flame, only praise. OP has to call here. As I see it you likely have the best hand, but also because even if you have the worst hand half the time or more a call is still +EV. Come on people look at the pot odds. I am dreaming of AC and people yelling "pot odds" as they cold call ridiculous raises.
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