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#21
12-15-2005, 09:42 PM
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Re: ($2000) L1, AK TPTK facing minraise
[ QUOTE ]
This particular situation is very exploitable and I do it quite often. I believe it is a high varience, but +EV, move. [/ QUOTE ] This is one of the key points I was curious about. However, can we really expect a solid/tag opponent to fold AK/AQ on a Ahigh flop? [ QUOTE ] OOP against a weak-tight pre-flop raiser early levels. What is his range? [/ QUOTE ] My guess would be JJ-AA, AK, AQs. Possibly add in TT, AQ, AJs. [ QUOTE ] Flop comes specifically A-rag-rag or K-rag-rag with no flush draw. I check. Villian bets 1/2-3/4 pot. Which hands in his range does he bet? [/ QUOTE ] I would expect a c-bet 95% of the time, esp HU [ QUOTE ] What if any does he check? [/ QUOTE ] Warning bells: he has a monster, unless he is really really weak/tight. [ QUOTE ] I raise somewhere between min-raise and pot. [/ QUOTE ] I would be tempted to raise also, except much more likely in an A high flop rather than a K high flop. [ QUOTE ] What percentage of his range does he fold? I'm willing to make this move because I think the ~1300 stack gives me more flexibility to pickup small pots early and helps me more than a ~700 stack early hurts me. Thoughts?? [/ QUOTE ] 
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#22
12-15-2005, 10:48 PM
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Re: ($2000) L1, AK TPTK facing minraise
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Against unknowns I never do something some percent of the time and something else some other percent. I do what I think is optimal given my read and my image. If I decided a fold is best here, I would fold and then take that into account in the future, possibly setting up a trap later. In a STT you are just too likely to never have a similar situation come up again to intentionally do something you think is second best. [/ QUOTE ] Everyone make sure you read this. This metagame [censored] is getting out of hand.
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#23
12-15-2005, 10:51 PM
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Re: ($2000) L1, AK TPTK facing minraise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This particular situation is very exploitable and I do it quite often. I believe it is a high varience, but +EV, move. [/ QUOTE ] This is one of the key points I was curious about. However, can we really expect a solid/tag opponent to fold AK/AQ on a Ahigh flop? [ QUOTE ] OOP against a weak-tight pre-flop raiser early levels. What is his range? [/ QUOTE ] My guess would be JJ-AA, AK, AQs. Possibly add in TT, AQ, AJs. [ QUOTE ] Flop comes specifically A-rag-rag or K-rag-rag with no flush draw. I check. Villian bets 1/2-3/4 pot. Which hands in his range does he bet? [/ QUOTE ] I would expect a c-bet 95% of the time, esp HU [ QUOTE ] What if any does he check? [/ QUOTE ] Warning bells: he has a monster, unless he is really really weak/tight. [ QUOTE ] I raise somewhere between min-raise and pot. [/ QUOTE ] I would be tempted to raise also, except much more likely in an A high flop rather than a K high flop. [ QUOTE ] What percentage of his range does he fold? I'm willing to make this move because I think the ~1300 stack gives me more flexibility to pickup small pots early and helps me more than a ~700 stack early hurts me. Thoughts?? [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] This is the key. He only checks monsters. This would include top set, and many times TPTK(or AA on a K high board) because the board is so non-threatening and he might induce a bluff on the turn. Part of making this play successful is to never make that bluff. His pre-flop range is so narrow that the percentage of hands he checks is much higher than the 5% you allowed. But that means the percentage of hands he can call your raise with just went down.
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