Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Twelve (Early Edition)

[jedinite]

Last week was a bad one - nailed Chicago, whiffed on the rest. That makes three consecutive losing weeks (my only three losing weeks of the year). While a lot of traditionally successful sports bettors are having a rough year with all the big favorites coming through, I've still been grinding out a decent year and expect to return to form this week. Had I stuck with my initial indications of Chicago as my game of the week there would have been a bright spot to the week at least - once again, that's what I get for going against my system and my first instinct.

This week brings a great number of valuable home underdogs. My picks system traditionally loves home underdogs with talent, and this week is no exception. This is also the start of my system starting to place a lot of weight on playoff implications - i.e. strengthening the value of those teams who are in "must win" situations, weakening the value of those teams with strong leads on their division. Note that I'm posting these picks early, on Wednesday due to the Thursday games. Check back Friday/Saturday for possible updates and adjustments on the Sunday games.

Last week: 1-3 with a loss on the game of the week, loss on tease of the week.
26-22 for the year (51.9%). 7-4 on game of the week (63.6%). 1-1 on tease of the week (50%)

This week, recommending a stronger 5-4-2-1 graduated play (top two games are much more significantly favored this week). As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog but please lineshop agressively.

Kansas City -3 (Even) vs New England
KC has a terrible schedule to end the year (Denver, @Dallas, @Giants, Chargers, Bengals), and this is a must-win game for the Chiefs if they want to make the playoffs - in fact the Chiefs are pretty much going to need to win out at home in several tough matchups. While KC may not make it, they will get this game pretty easily. The Patriots simply have too many injuries to win this game in Arrowhead. While its sad to mention as a factor, Belichick is reeling from the surprise death of his Dad on Saturday night last week, and Belichick was not with the team this week to spend the time with his family - at this point in the week I'm not even sure if he's going to be back to coach the game this weekend, but even if he is, he missed all of practice to this point. On defense, Kansas City will look to exploit replacement center Russ Hochstein who made his first start of the year last week against the Saints, following Dan Koppen's season-ending shoulder injury the week before. The Saints weren't able to exploit this hole in the Patriots line, but Kansas City presents a much better set of blitzing linemen and linebackers. Patriots will be in catch-up mode all game, going extremely pass heavy - they'll be able to find the end zone against a weak Kansas City secondary, but KC's blitzes will be able to stop drives on third down and by creating turnovers. Offensively, KC should be able to exploit several matchups in the depleted New England secondary, both off the play-action pass and running Tony Gonzales out on routes. New England’s depleted defense has given up multiple passing scores in all but two of their games, and is one behind the Titans for the NFL lead in most passing scores allowed (20), and has given up more passing yards than all but one team (San Fran) Look for "Gonzo" to catch his first TD of the season, Green to add another to Kennison, and Larry Johnson to roll for two more in a 31-21 Kansas City win. Kansas City is also a 38%-62% public perception underdog according to Wagerline. Game of the Week.

Dallas +3 (-130) vs Denver
Two pretty evenly matched teams, with an edge to Parcels at coach and to the team that's not on the road. The Cowboys are also in a must-win situation, tied with five other NFC teams at 7-3 (Bears, Cowboys, Panthers, Giants, Bucs). Denver, however, is second in the AFC (behind the Colts) and has a two-game lead on the AFC West (ahead of KC and SD both at 6-4). The Cowboys have played seven of 10 games decided by six points or fewer, including three losses by a total of 10 - this game should be close, if not an outright win for Dallas. The Cowboys have scored 21 or more points in each of the last four Thanksgiving days- so even though they're up against a stout run defense in Denver, look for the Turkey Day factor (seemingly equivalent to the Monday Night factor) to turn this in to a higher-scoring game than expected. This season Jake Plummer has only one multi-score game and is averaging less than 200 yards per game away from Denver. Plummer also has traditionally underperformed against Dallas (his former NFC East rival), throwing nine picks and just six touchdowns in nine career meetings with Dallas. Combine that with the fact that Dallas has allowed only three passing TDs in their last seven games. Dallas should be able to shut out the passing game and work to contain the running game. If Dallas can build an early lead and go to the ground, they can force Denver away from the run and into a pass-first mode, where their offense is not nearly so comfortable. Injuries to Bell (bruised chest) and Elam (strained calf) mean two potent pieces of the Denver offense are at less-than-full capacity which could factor in to the game as well. Assuming Bell does play, he is averaging nine yards per carry and 79 yards per game at home, but only 4.1 per carry and 53 per game on the road (with no touchdowns on the road this season). So Denver is going to have to depend on Mike Anderson to do all their scoring (and maybe one TD from Plummer at most). Historically, the Broncos also have a 2-6 team record on Thanksgiving. Dallas is a 39% - 61% underdog in public perception according to Wagerline. This line has crept up from +2.5 to be widely available at +3 and might creep higher (or lower juice) closer to game time. Good line to place late for maximum value. 24-20 Dallas for the outright win.

Detroit +3 (Even) vs Atlanta
Falcons have lost two in a row. For Detroit, playing on Thanksgiving is about as close as this team is going to come to the superbowl this year (other than watching the game from a TV in the same city). The Lions have dominated the series against the Falcons with a record of 22-8, including beating Atlanta 17-10 last year (when Atlanta was 4-1). The Lions should get a significant bump on defense with the return of cornerback Dre' Bly and possibly safety Terrence Holt and probably even strong side linebacker Boss Bailey (which will be a huge bump to the Lions' run defense). The Lions also have all of their receivers back and healthy. Coach Steve Mariucci has been keeping injury updates top secret yesterday and today, so its not set in stone even who's going to QB. The possibility of Garcia returning at QB, plus several key defensive players returning, plus the edge that this information gives Detroit (in not allowing Atlanta to prepare for a specific QB or specific WRs or specific defensive matchups) gives Detroit an extra bump. Detroit is a 27% - 73% underdog in public perception according to Wagerline. 24-23 for the Detroit cover (that's three FGs for Detroit PK Jason Hanson - if Detroit can convert one of those possessions into a TD, they'll win the game outright 27-24). This is another game to place late - this line very well may move to +3.5 before game time the way it seems to be headed.

Arizona +3.5 vs Jacksonville
The Jags lost at St. Louis on Oct. 30, and the Cardinals just beat the Rams 38-28 on Sunday. A+B=C, ergo the Jags will face a tough test in Arizona, on the road against a team that's running hot and has proven that they can beat a common opponent (which managed to beat the Jags without their starting QB). Admittedly, the Rams got 200 yards out of their ground game in that matchup in which they beat the Jags, but both of their offensive touchdowns came through the air, and that was with Martin at QB for the Rams. The Cardinals are rolling, and have significant offense threats back on the team in their full contingent of starting WRs, not to mention the running game is developing slightly with the emerging threat of J.J. Arrington (several big runs against the Rams). On paper this looks like a terrible matchup for the Cards - Arizona averages 21ppg and is facing a defense allowing only 17ppg. Arizona is pass-heavy and the Jags bring in the #1 pass defense. However, Arizona presents a stout rush defense while at home and has only allowed one of four opposing QBs they've faced at home to score more than one touchdown. Arizona has also shut down the RBs they've faced at home, with the exception of Shaun Alexander - and with Jacksonville already struggling on the ground, Arizona should be able to shut down their run game. I know it looks ugly, but there is value in Arizona as a home underdog here. The Jags score once through the air, once on the ground, and once returning a Warner interception to the house. However Arizona responds with a long touchdown (20+ yards) through the air to Boldin (Larry Fitz is facing one of the league's best cover men in Rashean Mathis), and J.J. Arrington continues his trend of scoring in the past two consecutive games. However, the difference is the league's leading kicker Neil Rackers nails two field goals to cover - and might even get a shot at a game winner as regulation expires, he's hit six this year from 50+, which is the second most in NFL history (Morten Andersen, 8, 1995). Arizona is a 29%-71% public perception underdog according to Wagerline. 21-20 Jacksonville for the AZ cover.

Teaser of the Week: Dallas +9 / Detroit +9
Two games which cross through +3 and +7 for home underdogs, both of whom have a solid chance to win their games outright. This teaser is worth up to five units (equivalent to a game of the week). If you're looking for a three-team teaser its also valuable to add Arizona +9.5 to the mix, but since you're already across the three there its not nearly as valuable. If that spread crosses to 4 or even 4.5 it gains more value in crossing to a push/win at ten.