Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Nine

[jedinite]

This week is a mass of public opinion. Earlier in the week, the site I use to track public opinion plays was the most one-sided (across all the games) that I'd ever seen in four years of using the site. The massive public favorites have done pretty poorly this year, so either this weekend is going to be a massive regression to the mean (meaning the public is going to win a lot more games than they usually do, balancing out their losing trend) or its going to be a landslide victory for the bookmakers.

Yeah, I'm going with the latter.

Last week: 3-2 with a win on game of the week. 4-2 if I hadn't waved off Oakland.
Season results: 22-16 for the year (58%), 6-2 on the game of the week (75%).

I'm suggesting 4-2-2-1 unit plays this week (or 2-1-1-.5 if you prefer). I'm not exceedingly happy about the games, there are a lot of injury variables involved and there might be a lot of last-minute adjustments based upon late news or line shifts. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog but please lineshop aggressively

Arizona +4 (-105) vs Seattle
A matchup of a very solid and balanced team in Seattle, against a very one sided pass-first team in Arizona. Arizona does have a pretty solid defense, ranked 15th against the run and 18th against the pass. Look for Arizona to stick eight and possibly even nine men in the box against Seattle - big day for Seattle's wide receivers, but a slower than usual day for S.A. Warner is back at QB for Arizona, and while he might be a little rusty he's a major improvement over McCown and should be able to throw the ball against Seattle pretty well. Seattle has allowed 11 touchdowns this year, and 9/11 have come through the air. Arizona also has a tremendous special teams threat in Neil Rackers, who should be good for three field goals on route to a 23-21 outright victory for Arizona. And worst case this is a three point win for Seattle. This is also a major public perception play, with a 75% - 25% split in public opinion against Arizona according to Wagerline, and 6/6 Yahoo experts (and all the ESPN experts who've selected their games, which is only 3/8 out of this posting). Game of the week.

Carolina -1.5 at Tampa Bay
I know the general public is all over this game as well (62%-38%), but you have to remember that the general public is only wrong about 55% - 60% of the time at worst. When you factor in the 10% vig charged by most books, you're looking at a landslide advantage for the house, where they're winning a majority of the games outright and making an extra 10% from those who do win against them. In short, you can't go wrong picking against the public in general, but when you're picking a small subset of games you can't go against public opinion all the time. I let public opinion talk me out of solid analysis on Oakland winning last week, and I'm not going to do it again this week. Gruden is an excellent coach, but his Bucs are facing a strong Carolina rush defense (#2 in the NFL) who will be able to reliably stack eight and nine in the box against the Tampa running game and get serious pressure on rookie QB Chris Simms. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is 4-0 against Tampa Bay. Look for Carolina to use more of DeShaun Foster against the strong Tampa Bay run defense, as Foster brings big-play capability to the table and Davis is still banged up. Look for Carolina to shut down the Tampa Bay offense in whole, stuffing the run and really pressuring and confusing Simms. 21-17 Carolina.

Detroit (pk) at Minnesota
Minnesota has owned Detroit in the past, winning nine of the past ten meetings including all of the last six. However, Detroit is actually 7-2 ATS against the Vikings in the last nine meetings and is still 5-2 ATS this year. Detroit knows that the Vikes have had their number in recent years, and Detroit needs this game more than the Vikings (Detroit is second in the division, a game behind Chicago). Look for Kevin Jones to hit his first 100-yard rushing game of the year, against a Vikings defense that's ranked #29 against the run. Pro bowl DT Shaun Rogers will be the key to this game - he's questionable at the moment but has stepped up his practice participation on Thursday and Friday and hopefully will be able to go for Detroit - if he's in the lineup, even not at 100%, he will dramatically affect the Minnesota run game and help get pressure on Johnson, both of which will really disrupt the struggling Vikings offense. Rogers plays left tackle and is usually double-teamed by the center and right guard, which will mean dangerous RT Dan Wilkinson will be one-on-one with struggling Vikings LG Chris Liwienski which means a ton of pressure up the middle for the Lions. If Rogers is out, feel free to lay off this game or play for a single unit, but with Rogers in I feel this is an easy two-unit play under my betting system. Also, feel free to lay off this game under the "Tice Rule" (don't bet on or against Mike Tice) if you're uncomfortable there. 24-17 Detroit.

Miami +2 (-105) vs Atlanta
Atlanta is allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, and Miami is showing a much improved run game with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams who combined for 188 yards rushing last week. Marino will be honored at a halftime presentation, which should help to pump up the players and the crowd. Dolphins getting Seau back at LB should be a big help in trying to contain the Falcon's rushing attack. Almost purely a public perception play: I expected this line to be much higher (for Atlanta) which is usually a sign that there is something I'm missing. The public is all over this game, with 77% of the public favoring Atlanta versus 23% for Miami. 21-20 Atlanta for the Miami cover.

As usual, all picks archived on my blog http://performify.com

[CCx]

Good writeup as always.

I didn't see this mentioned so I'll ask - What affect do you think the loss of Anquan Boldin has on the Arizona passing game? Also, same question, but in combination with Warner starting his first game in a few weeks, what effect does not having the #1 receiver available have on the passing game with this QB in there? I realize both factors (+Warner, -Boldin) are influencing the public heavily.

[jedinite]

Thanks CCx.

Anquan had seven grabs for 101 yards and a score in his only game against Seattle last year, so there's no question he'll be missed. However, I do expect Larry Fitzgerald will try to step up big and help to fill the gap. However I assume Seattle will look to double cover Fitz (given that they really don't need to fill the box to stop the meager Arizona running game). Look for Arizona TE Eric Edwards to be a frequent target, as well as the two RBs out of the backfield.

Bryant Johnson of Penn State fame will be filling in as the #2 WR and is back to full speed after a foot injury in early August. Johnson was the first round pick for AZ three years ago (#17 overall), and hasn't really had much chance to shine yet (he's pretty much been labeled an underperformer - will he rise to the occasion?). He's 6-3 215, very similar to Larry Fitz physically. He has serious speed (ran 10.65 in the 100m @ Penn State) and good open field running ability, so there's a lot of big play potential there. Certainly he was expected to be a lot better than he has proven in the opportunities he's had. A big game here would mean a lot for him.

Arizona has been practicing this week with a two wide format, using a FB and TE (instead of their usual three-wide set). This should help to spark their running game just a little, and should allow for a little more max protect against Seattle blitzes. I don't expect some serious turnaround for the AZ run game, but its certainly possible that Seattle's defense underestimates them and their new formation scheme might just be enough of an edge to make some serious progress.

I assume we see a lot of short quick passes early to build Warner's confidence. With Larry likely being double-teamed it will be a lot to the TE and the RBs out of the backfield, with some short slants and outs to Larry. Hopefully some big downfield plays to try to stretch the defense: both Larry and Bryant Johnson have a proven ability to draw pass interference calls with their big size and physical play, so I expect we'll see a couple major pass interference calls if not big downfield plays.

PS: I'll be pulling for a big Eagles win this week, although not formally a pick. I do hope that the score is something like 49-35 though, as my main fantasy team is loaded with players from both sides of this contest...

[jedinite]

Detroit has moved up to +1 on at least two sites but remains a PK at several others. Wagerline still shows this as a consensus pick for Detroit, which possibly means a ton of smart (or just late) money has moved in on Minnesota on a couple books, enough to move the line the point. Not that from zero to one is a major move, but its interesting. I'll be watching this pretty carefully - if you're not on the game already, i'd recommend waiting for further developments. Anyone have any more details? Latest IR news still shows now developments for Roy Williams or Rogers...

Miami has moved to +2.5 (-115) on Bodog and a couple other places. Hopefully that line will keep moving to through to +3, so I'd recommend waiting to see if that line moves our direction there as well.

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Miami has moved to +2.5 (-115) on Bodog and a couple other places. Hopefully that line will keep moving to through to +3, so I'd recommend waiting to see if that line moves our direction there as well.

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When Bowmans was up 2 hours ago, Jedi, Miami was +3 +100. Yes, you read that correctly. If you like it that much sign up an account and go to it. It's a line you can easily middle for profit also. I laid $250/250.

[jedinite]

Thanks a bundle, sygamel. I'll see if I can't get in on that.

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks a bundle, sygamel. I'll see if I can't get in on that.

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Their site's been down for almost 3 hours. Hopefully they'll extend half-juice Fridays for an extra 3 hours but I doubt it. It's a pretty shady book. Regardless, Mia +3 s/b avail. at -110 tomorrow.

[jedinite]

Adding one more unit on Detroit +2.5 (-105)

Adding three units on KC -3.5 +110

[jedinite]

Going to add one unit on Arizona before that game starts. The line is currently +4.5 (-105) but I'll ride it out to see if it gets any better right before the game starts...

That will make the current distribution:

Arizona - 5 units
Chiefs - 3 units
Carolina - 2 units
Detroit - 2 units
Miami - 1 unit

[jedinite]

2-3 with my first losing % week of the season. Loss on game of the week.
24-19 for the year (55.8%), 6-3 on Game of the Week (67%)

GotW of Arizona was a close one - had AZ been able to hold Seattle to a FG on their last scoring series, and been only down ten, would have been a perfect scenario for the backdoor cover. Arizona was a little more sucessful on the run than their past games, but let SA run freely too much, and mostly Warner looked just a little too rusty, making several bad throws (frequently throwing late on timing routes) on top of three interceptions and a fumble.

Carolina was pretty much as anticipated - did a good job shutting down both sides of the Tampa offense.

Miami game was just terrible - Miami did a terrible job and should have run the ball much more, instead of trying too many complex plays in situations where they should have pounded the ball.

Vikings continue to have Detroit's number. This game went exactly opposite as predicted - Kevin Jones got knocked out early and thus shut that aspect down, Detroit turned the ball over twice early and built momentum and confidence for the Vikes.

Late KC addition saved the day from being a terrible loss, with a lucky last drive cover.