Pumping the Turn

[rmarotti]

Right on.

[Vern]

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I would pump that, but it is close to calling. you have a huge draw against 3 players. what's more, both pumping and calling are very close to the expectation that they produce, so arguing this is sorta unnecessary. however, reads would be helpful. the fact that you see that utg is a TAG who THREE-BET THE FLOP places him on something like AA-JJ (probably JJ), so you can argue that calling is slightly better than pumping.

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also, if he's got JJ.. he's capping the 3-bet and presenting two players (we're assuming the 4th guy isn't all-in) with 2-bets.. if one folds, our value raise is boned.. if they both call, we might have less outs than we think.. its a lose-lose situation.

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But one opponent cannot call or fold, he is all in. I think if he was still calling/betting I might, but since he is no longer contributing, it makes it a call. I was more curious how everyone felt pumping if MP2 still had money to contribute.

[btspider]

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But one opponent cannot call or fold, he is all in. I think if he was still calling/betting I might, but since he is no longer contributing, it makes it a call. I was more curious how everyone felt pumping if MP2 still had money to contribute.

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yeah, my last post discussed the effects of a JJ turn cap assuming the other guy was not all-in. reread it.

[Vern]

Sorry.

[Feldos]

Hello,

Hmm, I do not want to hijack your post but if I may I'd like to question the value of calling with KQs in the given situation.

I'm a new player and thus far I've stuck with very tight calling/raising standards when facing a raise as sugested by most poker guru's out there. In your position I would fold my hand without hesitation... I'm not sayng that's right or wrong only what I've read thus far. This is what I think in details: (My oppinion is ABC Basic, skip to conclusion if you get bored easely)

#1-In the event UTG misses the flop with ether AK/AQ and checks before both loose limpers who also check he is getting correct odds to call a bet by Hero (which means that both limpers will likely call as well for a 3-4 player turn). This makes it hard to take the pot down on the flop and turn with bluffs or isolation raises.

#2-In the event UTG misses (4real or waiting to C/R) the flop and a limper comes alive before you (unlikely) there are a few flops you can call/raise safely to isolate profitably such as with 2 overs and 1 club. There is value in playing on the button.

#3-In the event both the Hero and UTG make a hand it is extremely likely that UTG has Hero dominated and it will cost Hero some $$ to find out. On the other hand if UTG is beat he will have both fish limpers appreciation of the flop and Hero's before him to act upon so he will have an easier time making the proper decision for himself on the flop.

CONCLUSION:

IMHO, the main reasonable chance for Hero to profit from this call is to flop a strong straight/flush draw. Because there is 6SB's + Blinds in the pot at the time Hero makes his move the odds on call are: 7.50SB/2B (or 1:2.75) and that is too costly.

I'm not tryng to school anybody here simply offering my current oppinion. In fact since nobody has posted feedback on Hero's pre-flop play I suspect I am wrong.

Also asuming it's the correct move: Likely because of the 2 previous cold-callers who provide support to flop a draw and can be counted upon to pay off if it hits. My question is: How many such cold-callers is required before Hero could cold call profitably with any 2 suited 0/1/2 gappers?

Ok sorry for my long winded post... I will try answer the original posters question in another post.

[Feldos]

Hello,

I think you played this very well. I was about to sit down and calculate the odds you had working for you but since you've done it allready... I can only add that IMHO you know your stuff.

On a side note the chances that UTG is holding the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are: AK=3/12 combinations, AQ=3/12 combinations, and finnaly AA=3/6 combinations for a total of: 9/30 with the aces covered. Add in KK-JJ or 9 extra possible holdings the total becomes: 18/39 (46%) chance for him to call when facing a 3 bet if he keeps his Ahigh backdoor flush draw with overcards or 12/39 (30%) if not. That is ignoring AJs/TT/KQs which lower his chances. So asuming he'd bet with any of these holdings Vs 4 players on this flop you made the correct decision to call and hope he stays in. Now I'm not 100% sure I did my calculations right, somebody please doublecheck!

I agree with your decision on the turn to simply call, because MP2 is all-in.

[chief444]

I'd probably 3-bet the flop. I don't think UTG based on your description would bet overcards into 3 opponents so I doubt if he's folding regardless but a free turn card would be nice. Call/cap is fine though.

I just call the turn.

[psyduck]

Re: most people advocating calling the turn

Ok, I take back my pumping the turn. Like others have said, someone (UTG) might have the nut flush draw, so that reduces your outs (and makes you have to pay off a lot if you do get a club). Also, one player is all in, so you won't get that extra bet out of him. Finally, the UTG might cap it after you 3-bet, so one of the other callers might fold, making your value bet ineffective.

So with all this, calling makes more sense. However, isn't it very close to pumping? the change in expectation is miniscule. Anyone disagree (and why)???

[Vern]

Actually, if UTG has been more loose and aggressive, I would likely have three-bet pre-flop since both MP1 and MP2 were nice and loose. I could expect to actually have the best hand quite often if UTG was looser and more aggressive. The only reason I called was because of UTG's tight standards from EP. I was the third to cold call, which made it a lot easier since if I hit my draw/hand, like I did, I could expect those loose players to put a lot of money in the pot and I had great relative position on the PFR. Folding KQs on the BTN with an UTG raise and two loose cold callers is a mistake, IMHO.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

[Vern]

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Hello,

I think you played this very well. I was about to sit down and calculate the odds you had working for you but since you've done it allready... I can only add that IMHO you know your stuff.

On a side note the chances that UTG is holding the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are: AK=3/12 combinations, AQ=3/12 combinations, and finnaly AA=3/6 combinations for a total of: 9/30 with the aces covered. Add in KK-JJ or 9 extra possible holdings the total becomes: 18/39 (46%) chance for him to call when facing a 3 bet if he keeps his Ahigh backdoor flush draw with overcards or 12/39 (30%) if not. That is ignoring AJs/TT/KQs which lower his chances. So asuming he'd bet with any of these holdings Vs 4 players on this flop you made the correct decision to call and hope he stays in. Now I'm not 100% sure I did my calculations right, somebody please doublecheck!

I agree with your decision on the turn to simply call, because MP2 is all-in.

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My concern was not that UTG had the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as much as it was A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and therefor drawing/pumping to a better flush and I lose all 9 club outs. For him to raise preflop with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from UTG, X would have to be the K, Q or J of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], all three were acounted for in my hand or on the board, so I was not worried about him being on a better flush draw. Once he check-raised the turn, I put him on AA-JJ, with only the JJ really worrying me and I had to hit and pair the board first before it would really concern me.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.