Ax, flop is A A rag

[warewulf]

I have a poker odds question for you...

In a full game (9 or 10 players at the table), and you're holding Ax, and the flop comes A-A-rag, what are the odds (percentage-wise) that you are holding the only Ace among all the players in the hand?

[Kaeser]

I may be going about this wrong but In a 9 player game there's 47 cards left and 16 cards dealt out so I'd say about 35% of the time the other ace will have been dealt.

Chances of another ace, with the give flop by other players at table, assuming that all players will call pre-flop regardless of hole cards:

1 player = 4.26%

2 players = 8.51%

3 players = 12.77%

4 players = 17.02%

5 players = 21.28%

6 players = 25.53%

7 players = 29.79%

8 players = 34.04%

9 players = 38.30%

10 players = 42.55%

[warewulf]

Looks like similar math, only a difference of 3% or so. Any others want to confirm one of the two?

[Kaeser]

No we got the same answer when I said a 9 player game I meant 8 players plus you. Also I rounded up from 34 and change to 35%.

[Jesus H]

I think rposeagles' math is off by about 4%. I have:
10 Players - 38% chance that someone has been dealt the last Ace
9 Players - 34%
8 Players - 31%

How are you (rposeagles) reaching your calculations?