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#1
12-27-2005, 12:09 AM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
The flop bet is correct and necessary, so is the flop call.
The turn call is also a no-brainer (you've got a gutshot and your 7 outs are good). The river is iffy, if it is a VB then it is very thin. 
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#2
12-27-2005, 07:42 AM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
[ QUOTE ]
The flop bet is correct and necessary, so is the flop call. [/ QUOTE ] I understand that the call is automatic when it's check/raised, but I take exception to the bet being obviously correct. This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call. The bet does nothing to protect our hand, our equity will change dramatically on the turn, either up or down. I see this is a pretty clear check actually.
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#3
12-27-2005, 09:07 AM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
[ QUOTE ]
This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call. [/ QUOTE ] When overcard hands fold to our flop bet - we gain A LOT! (Not to mention that we easily have enough equity on the flop to put a bet in and grow the pot a little)
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#4
12-27-2005, 11:23 AM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call. [/ QUOTE ] When overcard hands fold to our flop bet - we gain A LOT! (Not to mention that we easily have enough equity on the flop to put a bet in and grow the pot a little) [/ QUOTE ] Well, hoping that big fields of small stakes fish all will make incorrect lay downs is stretching it a bit. This hand is similar to the TT example in 'Two Overpair Hands' in SSH. I'll happily claim that Ed would agree to wait for the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#5
12-27-2005, 12:44 PM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call. [/ QUOTE ] When overcard hands fold to our flop bet - we gain A LOT! (Not to mention that we easily have enough equity on the flop to put a bet in and grow the pot a little) [/ QUOTE ] Well, hoping that big fields of small stakes fish all will make incorrect lay downs is stretching it a bit. This hand is similar to the TT example in 'Two Overpair Hands' in SSH. I'll happily claim that Ed would agree to wait for the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] The hands aren't similar at all and you'd be pretty wrong to hope that Ed would agree that checking the flop in an 8SB pot when no one has shown any interest and you have a fair amount of equity. The conversation of offering infinite odds vs. offering limited odds has been covered before. In addition, your gutshot adds to your potential equity in this hand. This is an easy flop bet. Rob
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#6
12-27-2005, 02:04 PM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
Our equity against 7 completely random hands is ~18.2%. The random hands equity is ~11.7%. A 'fair share' would be 12.5%. Notice that we are actually likely to improve and still lose, our showdown equity is significantly lower than our chance to improve.
If we are sure that 6 people will call our bet we can treat a bet like pumping a draw, actually we want to be fairly certain all 7 will call as atleast 4 of them hold a non-random hand. If for some bizarre reason we were sure our opponents were so tight that a bet would cut it down to 1-2 villains we could bet for that reason. The problem is that we are going to end up somewhere between those extremities. Betting to avoid giving infinite odds is a good point though. (And I retract the likeness to 2OP hands) It's pretty much the only point really.
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#7
12-27-2005, 02:08 PM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
[ QUOTE ]
Our equity against 7 completely random hands is ~18.2%. The random hands equity is ~11.7%. A 'fair share' would be 12.5%. Notice that we are actually likely to improve and still lose, our showdown equity is significantly lower than our chance to improve. If we are sure that 6 people will call our bet we can treat a bet like pumping a draw, actually we want to be fairly certain all 7 will call as atleast 4 of them hold a non-random hand. If for some bizarre reason we were sure our opponents were so tight that a bet would cut it down to 1-2 villains we could bet for that reason. The problem is that we are going to end up somewhere between those extremities. Betting to avoid giving infinite odds is a good point though. (And I retract the likeness to 2OP hands) It's pretty much the only point really. [/ QUOTE ] Our opponents won't have random hands when they call our bets. Randomness is weighting the odds of AA and 82o equally likely as calling bets on this board and that's bad from what I can see. As I said to a friend, you're not going to win this pot as often as you'd like, but you'll win it more than often enough to justify putting bets -- be it one or multiple -- in on the flop. Rob
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#8
12-27-2005, 02:12 PM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
[ QUOTE ]
Notice that we are actually likely to improve and still lose, our showdown equity is significantly lower than our chance to improve. [/ QUOTE ] Hitting a 7 or our straight won't likely lose the hand, so we have 6 pretty clean outs. Hitting a 6 would be dangerous, but not devasting. Plus we're likely to already hold the best hand. [ QUOTE ] If we are sure that 6 people will call our bet we can treat a bet like pumping a draw, actually we want to be fairly certain all 7 will call as atleast 4 of them hold a non-random hand. [/ QUOTE ] You have to realise we're not up against random hands here. Eliminate AA-77 and 55/33 would give a better estimation of our equity. This is an easy bet. Where in Sweden do you live?
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#9
12-28-2005, 09:52 AM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call. [/ QUOTE ] When overcard hands fold to our flop bet - we gain A LOT! (Not to mention that we easily have enough equity on the flop to put a bet in and grow the pot a little) [/ QUOTE ] Well, hoping that big fields of small stakes fish all will make incorrect lay downs is stretching it a bit. [/ QUOTE ] It is potentially a coup if 2 or 3 opponents fold overcards. If the turn is a J, you'll be happy that JT folded.
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#10
12-28-2005, 10:04 AM
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Re: 67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call. [/ QUOTE ] When overcard hands fold to our flop bet - we gain A LOT! (Not to mention that we easily have enough equity on the flop to put a bet in and grow the pot a little) [/ QUOTE ] Well, hoping that big fields of small stakes fish all will make incorrect lay downs is stretching it a bit. This hand is similar to the TT example in 'Two Overpair Hands' in SSH. I'll happily claim that Ed would agree to wait for the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I think the difference between this hand and Ed's TT example is that we have more redraws to improve here. I don't see the flop bet as a protection bet, I see it as a value bet - we have 7-9 outs to get better here. I think we should pop the turn but I am in the "over aggro" stage of my transformation from weak-tightie to 2+2er LOL. I agree with the consensus check down on the river.
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