Rogue waves

[Carl_William]

A rogue preflop raise? I’m sure all of us who have played thousands of OM8 hands have been occasionally surprised or clobbered when an opponent connects on an unusual hand "a flyer" after making a preflop raise. This reminds me of a rogue ocean wave that I experienced while skin diving in a depth of 15 to 20 feet of water off of Dana Point, CA many years ago. The ocean was relatively calm, and along comes a rather big single deep water wave that knocks you for a loop. I was somersaulted a few times, my facemask came off, and I lost a spear gun. These rogue waves do occur, and I am glad I only experienced only one in maybe 100 dives in the ocean. Getting back to OM8….

Assuming I am familiar with the opponent player’s style, I am not usually surprised with the action of maniacs in ring games who raise frequently from any position. But it can be disastrous in a tournament when a stranger opponent make a raise with an unsuspecting pocket hand and connects with the nuts (especially with the bets are relatively large with respect to the player’s stacks for a sit-and-go tournament). Usually tournament players who raise with garbage, and who initially experience a little luck; don’t finish in the money. But a resourceful player who raises in position with a relatively low probability hand; gets lucky; and connects on the flop: “can sometimes really clean up on this situation.” Recently, I was hit by two rogue waves in a PP sit-and-go tournament and never recovered. Both times I had respectable starter hands. The first time I had “A 2 5 9 with the ace suited,” and a certain player raised with “3 5 7 8” and made nut low and a straight (I think I made AA 99 high and a A 2 4 5 6 low). The next time this same certain player raised with “3 4 Q Q” when my big blind hand consisted of “A 3 5 7;” and this time the resourceful player made queens full with no low on board (my hand was dead from the get-go). This was probably a rogue wave hitting me twice, but it makes one wonder when the same player gets lucky when perfect cards for his hand hit the board – especially if the rogue preflop raiser would have exhausted his resources if he didn’t hit these hands. I must explain I had no previous knowledge of this guy’s playing style. My thoughts were or are: “The first time; I should have dropped immediately after not hitting the nuts or near nuts on the flop. I should not try to guess what this opponent has, that is I should have got out as early as possible (to preserve my resources for a better situation) if I don't have the nuts at least one way.” Sometimes it is not easy to make the better decision. Any comments….

[gergery]

3578 will win 4 times out of 10 vs. A259
QQ43 is a favorite and will win 5+ times out of 10 vs. A259

So I’d say you need to revise your definition of rogue waves.

[Oversway]

My thoughts, for what they are worth. It seems to me that if these hands are heads ups I don't see a problem with his raising. He has hands with scooping potential (See Bobby Baldwin's section on this in SSII).

Your calling witht he first hand seems very reasonbale to me and you continuation, if I read it right, all the way to the river also seems very reasonable to me.

However, the second hand seems rather dubious to me. If I am reading this right, you called him down with a set of 3's and no low possible. If the board pairs and all you have is A3 to go with it and you are getting action, the for God's sake, ESPECIALLY if you know nothing about him, give it up. You are, at best, splitting this pot with another A3 and have a good chance of being stone dead, as you found out.

But, I write better than I play, so I probably would have done what you did, so maybe you should ignore me [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Oversway

[Carl_William]

[ QUOTE ]
3578 will win 4 times out of 10 vs. A259
QQ43 is a favorite and will win 5+ times out of 10 vs. A259

So I’d say you need to revise your definition of rogue waves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dear Gergery,

Thanks for the reply. I didn’t explain the overall details of the two examples. Regarding the raising action by this particular player. His betting action puzzled me, it was very unusual. Something just did not seem right. Maybe the guy was an off and on sporadic maniac player. I’m sure he was not an accomplished player. When this guy (maybe in 5th position) had the 3578 hand, he initially raised a under the gun limper. I was in the cut off or button and called the raise with A (suited) 2 5 9. The early limper re-raised, and the 3578 hand capped the betting. The probability that this guy is going to win 40% of the time with 3578 in a three way action pot (in the long run) probably is not so, and I apologize for not giving all the details. Also before the fact, the probability that this guy perfectly makes the two hands he had against me is maybe on the order of 80 to 1 against. I was not complaining about a bad beat. I was just mentioning that rare combination events happen every so often. But also the pattern of this guy’s betting did not seem right – just my opinion.

Rare event examples: In Gardena, CA prior to 1982 (or so), players dealt the cards (there were no professional house dealers), only draw poker games were played (no stud or flop games were legal).

(1) I once dealt myself four of a kind, after having four of a kind on the previous deal. Most of the opponents thought I was cheating or suspected cheating, or at least teased me to that extent.
(2) Another time an old guy playing in a draw poker game would leave the table supposedly for a drink at the local Gardena bar, and the first time he dealt after returning, he dealt himself quads and an opponent a full house. The second time he came back, on his first deal; he again dealt himself quads and an opponent a pat hand. On the third time he returned, he again dealt himself quads and an opponent trips. On all three of these events he always had only one opponent. Of course, we all were convinced he was cheating and reported him to the management at the Rainbow Club in Gardena. Nothing came of this, and I played with this same guy for years afterwards. There was no way he was capable of cheating. I feel that dealing himself quads three times in a row after returning from a drink at a local bar was just a billion to one event that happened. You could not believe this unless you were there.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
A rogue preflop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Carl - Interesting idea. Not a bad term for it.

[ QUOTE ]
a certain player raised with “3 5 7 8”

[/ QUOTE ]

Throws you off if you're expecting the pre-flop raise to mean something.

If you watch opponents who play like that in a ring game, they'll generally take a bath - although occasionally they'll hit the flop squarely and even when they don't, they'll occasionally continue and end up with two perfect turn/river cards. But usually they'll reach into their pocket several times for a fresh buy-in. I think you generally want them sitting on your right in a ring game. Otherwise they're more likely to burn up a lot of your chips.

It's much the same in a tournament. Opponents who play that way usually end up on the rail. But sometimes they get lucky and make the final table.

[ QUOTE ]
But it can be disastrous in a tournament when a stranger opponent make a raise with an unsuspecting pocket hand and connects with the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely! Part of the problem is the limits go up too fast. You have to sometimes play when you'd prefer to wait for a better opportunity. And then some fruitcake makes it more expensive to play that you'd like, forcing you to gamble.

It's just bad luck when you get a chip burner at your table in a tournament. You're basically forced to play for higher stakes than the people at another table. They can be playing for 100/200 at the next table over, but because of the "rogue raiser" you're playing for 200/400.

Sometimes you simply have to out wait them in a tournament. If you have enough chips to stall for a few rounds, avoid confrontations until they bust out.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Carl_William]

Dear Mr. Gergery,

You posted:

[ QUOTE ]
3578 will win 4 times out of 10 vs. A259
QQ43 is a favorite and will win 5+ times out of 10 vs. A259


[/ QUOTE ]


I suggest you ask around about the validity regarding your opinion on the value of the hands: "3578" and "QQ43" versus "A259." I feel somebody totally mislead you -- so I'm trying to do you a favor and I hope you understand. Essentially whether the makeup of the cards are suited is also almost a moot point, although it can shift the odds a significant amount but probably not enough to ever make the pocket cards “3578’ or “QQ43” a favorite over the hand “A259.” Also the number of other opponents would be a moot point with respect to the hands: "3578" and "QQ43." In fact, the private Omaha8 hand consisting of a single ACE with three other random cards (on balance) will clean the clock of either: "3578" and "QQ43." From your initial reply, I don’t expect you to believe me – based on the tone of your reply regarding the (my) analogy or metaphor of relating a rogue ocean wave to the actions of an ignorant maniac in a short three or four hour OM8 B&M tournament or a one hour one table sit&go on Partypoker. I suggest you….

You use Wilson’s Turbo OM8 software program to test the hands: "3578" and "QQ43" versus "A259." You don’t have to do that if you believe me, but…. If you don’t have the program you, you can order it over the Internet on the URL:
Learn more about Matching Sites
• The Official Site of Wilson Turbo Poker Software - Texas holdem poker and poker software by Wilson Software. The #1 Rated Texas Holdem Poker Software. http://wilsonsoftware.com/
Also there are free Internet sites which you can get from two+two which returns the relative value or odds of various poker hands in flop games. If you are interested, I will at my leisure try to send them to you. It would take me some time to run this info down—sad to say I have too many irons in the fire.

Most warm regards & , Happy St. Pat’s day


Carl

[beset7]

I like your post and I sympathize with your feelings.

However, I've had some thoughts lately about split-pot game tourney play.

This is a fact: most good Omaha8 and Stud8 cash game players are horrible tournaments players. Why? Because they don't adjust to the escalating blinds very well. The fact is, once the blinds get up it's a completely different game that more closely resembles pot-limit omaha8. "Premium" hands just don't come along often enough. Big pairs and with decent side cards go up in value. You are looking to steal blinds and get involved in heads up hands with a good high. I've watched it time and time again. The good cash game players play the first few rounds like a cash game (as they should). Then, there stacks starts to dwindle as they wait and wait for A2XX (xx= good side cards). Then, they finally get it and a more aggressive player that has been attacking the blinds and playing hands that would be insta-mucks in a cash game flops a set, gets them to chase a low and busts them out. Obviously tourney structure is going to be a big factor (15 min levels as opposed 1hour levels). But in the typical online turbo tourney there just isn't time to wait.

This is totally off-topic but it just occured to me as I was reading your post.