Would a flop call be too loose here?

[PuckNPoker]

Thanks for your feedback, I have a couple comments I would like to discuss.

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PREFLOP: Call marginal but OK. 54 is so low.

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Hmm, 7-1 on my preflop call (since I'm the BB) and I would say an excellent chance I am not dominated here. Plus I think the implied odds are pretty tremendous at this point. Even though I'd love to see the flop for free, seeing it for 1 bet in this spot isnt really marginal is it?

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FLOP: Worth a small bet to see one more card. Gutshot outs are a little weak as your on the low end of the 678 it would put on board. I'll count the gutshot outs as a generous 3, the BD flush as 1.5, the BD gutshot on the other side as 1.5. Total outs: 6. You have odds to call.

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Im pretty sure BD Gutshot straight is much harder to hit than a BD OE straight I dont think the outs are nearly as high as 1.5, anyone know for sure?

[nozyrev]

If you flop a gutshot you are 5:1 dog to complete the straight by the river.
This is the way i compute it:

1) You can make the straight on the turn with probability: 4/47
2) You can make the straight on the river with probability:
(43/47)*(4/46)

So the probability that you complete straight by the river is the sum of 1) + 2) = 16.5%

The odds are just (1/0.165) - 1 =~ 5:1

[nozyrev]

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FLOP: Worth a small bet to see one more card. Gutshot outs are a little weak as your on the low end of the 678 it would put on board. I'll count the gutshot outs as a generous 3, the BD flush as 1.5, the BD gutshot on the other side as 1.5. Total outs: 6. You have odds to call.



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But you still need to consider the gutshot outs twice (since you can complete the gutshot on the turn and on the river). So they are worth more than 3 outs (in fact they are worth little less than 6 outs)

[grjr]

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Although I agree that you should call here, I think it's closer than most people indicate.

I don't think you discount the value of your hand enough. Your straight draw isn't worth 4 full outs, becasue you won't win 100% of the time if you hit what you're drawing to. It's called a 'sucker straight' for a reason. Your gutshot is probably worth closer to 3 outs. The same is also true of the flush draw, but the discounted value is probably relatively close to the undiscounted value - the BDFD is prob worth 1-1.25 outs. Your hand is therefore worth somewhere around 4 outs. You need 1:12 with 4 outs, and your'e getting 1:11. But it's close enough so the implied odds can pull you in. If SB calls, you've made your odds right there. Go ahead and call here.

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From the tone of your post I'm gathering that you would not call the flop in this situation if you were getting only 8:1 or even 9:1. Is this correct?

If it is then I think you're making a big mistake when there are 3 other people in the hand. The implied odds can be much higher than you might think.

I see all these people posting their stats on here and wondering why they're not making money because "they only call the flop when they have the proper odds". Well, if they're folding gutshots on the flop unless they're getting 11:1 or better then they don't know what the "proper odds" are.

I seem to be the only one here making a big stink about this. Am I alone in thinking this way?

[nozyrev]

agree. you don't need 11:1 to call 1 bet on the flop with a gutshot. You need much less than that.

[Shillx]

No. You should be calling this like clockwork dude.

[TomBrooks]

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agree. you don't need 11:1 to call 1 bet on the flop with a gutshot. You need much less than that.

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Suppose you have no other outs besides a gutshot. How much less than 11:1 do you need?

What would you need for other number of outs than four? How do you figure this?