Chasing my set (implied odds question)

[SlantNGo]

This flop call was automatic for me getting 18:1 and with no possibility of a raise behind me. How low would you go here? I thought 16:1 was marginal but given that this is a loose-passive table (mid 30s VPIP, 7 BB avg. pot), is 14:1 even a possibility here?

BTW MP2 just sat down, and with no read on him, I couldn't count on him to bet that turn, so I bet it.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (13.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 22.50 BB

[istewart]

I think the turn gets checked through quite a bit here and you don't want to give JT or T9 free cards. Nice hand.

At 14:1 I would probably fold. Above that and it gets trickier.

[GTSamIAm]

You're not going to get paid off big time by any hands on this flop except a random two pair. Unless everyone calls nearly all the time, this is an easy fold. Marginal implied odds require specific reads. You have to put them on hands, and then estimate how they'll play their hands to pay you off.

[Harv72b]

Nice hand, sir.

[ QUOTE ]
How low would you go here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You need 23.5:1 to call the flop bet with a 2-outer, and with no backdoors available, that's all you have. So it's a question of how many bets you can anticipate making up on the big streets when you turn your 4.

Typical loose/passive 1/2 table, you can anticipate just about everyone sticking around for the river with a gutshot, pair, or just a plain old ace. With 5 players in the pot, I'm therefore anticipating making somewhere in the vicinity of 7 BBs when I hit my 4. Reduce that a bit for the times when you're up against an overset or someone's gutshot hits on the river, and I think that 10 SBs is achievable in this example.

So, yeah....about 14:1 would work on the flop.

[hemstock]

If I am correct. You are getting 18 to 1. You need 4 more small bets which is 2 big bets. So definetly is a call. Even with just 14 to 1 I think with implied odds you can still call.

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
You need 23.5:1 to call the flop bet with a 2-outer

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was 22:1?

[Dave G.]

It's 22.5:1. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
It's 22.5:1. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

It's about 22.5:1 if Hero will definitely see both the turn and river without putting in more money (i.e., he or his opponent(s) are all-in with the flop bet).

Since Hero will be folding to a turn bet 100% of the time when he does not hit a 4, 23.5:1 is the better number to use here.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's 22.5:1. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

It's about 22.5:1 if Hero will definitely see both the turn and river without putting in more money (i.e., he or his opponent(s) are all-in with the flop bet).

Since Hero will be folding to a turn bet 100% of the time when he does not hit a 4, 23.5:1 is the better number to use here.

[/ QUOTE ]

A bit better than that if we're all in, since we'd be seeing two cards. Our percentage for hitting a 4 in that case would be

1-(1-2/47)(1-2/46) = 8.4%,

which would be a 1 in 11.8 or so.

But to answer the OP's question, sure I could see us getting paid off if we hit our set and closing the action, especially if we plan on filling up on the river [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[SCfuji]

this turn isnt getting checked through unless you know mp2 is really really passive. perfect spot for a check raise.