#11
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
"Turn: Come again?"
LOL. Nuff said. |
#12
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly. Basically, here's my reasoning:
You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call. |
#13
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
[ QUOTE ]
To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly. Basically, here's my reasoning: You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call. [/ QUOTE ] |
#14
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
[ QUOTE ]
To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly. [/ QUOTE ] Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush? [ QUOTE ] Basically, here's my reasoning: You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call. [/ QUOTE ] Alright, let's go through the math. There are 10.25 BB in the pot (no clue where you're getting 11.5) when the action is to the BB. So if you think 3-betting the turn is right just because the others might fold, you need them to fold at least 9 percent of the time. There's no way you will take it down right here that often. But of course, a reasonable assumption is that the BB also has 0-5 outs. The problem, of course, is that even 4 outs is not enough. So the BB would have to assume that he has 5 outs or more to make even a call correct, much less a 3-bet. Again, I stand by my original statement that this sort of play is -EV high-variance chip spewing. |
#15
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush? [/ QUOTE ] You're trying to fold a higher flush draw by representing a made flush or a higher flush draw card. Make sense now? b |
#16
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
Not Q8c exactly. A club of rank between 8 and Q (if he folds A or K thats also great, but he won't).
I should have said its an 11.25 BB pot; counted the SB wrong. But its 11.25 not 10.25 because if we're deciding between calling and raising (you apparently think a fold is in order? if so i think you're nuts) one more bet of ours is effectively already in the middle. Finally, your estimate of 0-5 outs is absurdly low. We have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw and 2 more outs to a set. If we go to the river heads up with the CO, of the hands we can reasonably expect him to have, only a made flush (which has us drawing dead) has us drawing to much fewer than 6 outs. Against the hand you actually had, for instance, the BB had 14 outs. |
#17
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush? [/ QUOTE ] You're trying to fold a higher flush draw by representing a made flush or a higher flush draw card. Make sense now? [/ QUOTE ] Did the CO magically disappear or something? He's the one who raised the turn, so why do you think that he doesn't have a made flush or even a big club? It turned out in this case that he didn't, but I claim that this is pretty rare. You're right that BB will very likely get UTG to fold a Qc (though not an Ac or maybe even a Kc), but there are two opponents here. |
#18
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
[ QUOTE ]
I should have said its an 11.25 BB pot; counted the SB wrong. But its 11.25 not 10.25 because if we're deciding between calling and raising (you apparently think a fold is in order? if so i think you're nuts) one more bet of ours is effectively already in the middle. [/ QUOTE ] Alright, let's go through it again. There are 6.25 BB in the pot at the beginning of the turn. BB bets, UTG calls, CO raises -- so 4 BB have gone in the pot since the beginning of the turn. BB is now getting 10.25:1, correct? Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds. The only way I can see you getting 11.25:1 is that you're assuming that UTG will call too, but then you should also realize that he'll 3-bet some fraction of the time because he'll be the one with the made A high flush. [ QUOTE ] Finally, your estimate of 0-5 outs is absurdly low. We have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw and 2 more outs to a set. If we go to the river heads up with the CO, of the hands we can reasonably expect him to have, only a made flush (which has us drawing dead) has us drawing to much fewer than 6 outs. Against the hand you actually had, for instance, the BB had 14 outs. [/ QUOTE ] I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic. It just won't happen that often in this specific situation where the CO has shown aggression on the turn. I happened to have had one of only three hands I could have had that didn't have a big club (or any club). But alright, let's say you have at most 8 outs. Your call is +EV, but your raise still isn't. |
#19
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds. [/ QUOTE ] I'm comparing calling and raising. In other words I'm trying to decide if its worth putting an additional bet into the 10.25 BB pot beyond the 1 I'm putting in to call. Not counting the 1 BB that goes in for the call is doing the math wrong. [ QUOTE ] I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic. [/ QUOTE ] You're wrong. If BB can get it heads up going to the river this flush should frequently be good. Why is TT one of only 3 hands you can have that don't contain a dominating club? Or, more generally, what do you feel the CO's hand range is, and why? |
#20
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Re: 30/60 Jamming the turn
[ QUOTE ]
He's the one who raised the turn, so why do you think that he doesn't have a made flush or even a big club? [/ QUOTE ] If he had the made flush, he'd likely have reraised the flop with his flush draw + likely at least 1 overcard. Especially if hes a TAG. He might have a big club. He might not be putting you on a flush as you did a protection raise on the flop. If he/or UTG caps, then you have a decision to make. b |
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